L10-ss - The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL...

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5/23/11 Lecture 10 1 STOR 155 Introductory Statistics Lecture 10: Randomness and Probability Model The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL
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5/23/11 Lecture 10 2 • We call a phenomenon (or an experiment) random if individual outcomes are uncertain, but a regular distribution of outcomes emerges with a large number of repetitions. – Example: Toss a coin, gender of new born baby. • The probability of any outcome in a random experiment is approximately the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of independent repetitions, – using a long-term relative frequency to realize it … – In the early days, probability was associated with games of chance (gambling).
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5/23/11 Lecture 10 3 Probability as long term relative frequency --- two of many possible sample paths
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5/23/11 Lecture 10 4 Probability Model • Probability models attempt to model random behavior. • Consist of two parts: – A list of possible outcomes (sample space S ) – An assignment of probabilities P to each outcome • The probability of an event A , denoted by P ( A ) , can be considered as the long run relative frequency of the event A .
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5/23/11 Lecture 10 5 Sample Space and Events • Sample space S : the set of all possible outcomes in a random experiment. – Examples: Toss a coin. Record the side facing up. S
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This note was uploaded on 11/18/2011 for the course STOR 155 taught by Professor Andrewb.nobel during the Summer '08 term at UNC.

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L10-ss - The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL...

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