chapter 2 - Chapter 2 DECISION MAKING, SYSTEMS, MODELING,...

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Chapter 2 DECISION MAKING, SYSTEMS, MODELING, AND SUPPORT 1
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Learning Objectives Understand the conceptual foundations of decision making Understand Simon’s four phases of decision making: intelligence, design, choice, and implementation Recognize the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality, and how they relate to decision making 2
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Learning Objectives Differentiate between the concepts of making a choice and establishing a principle of choice Learn how DSS support for decision making can be provided in practice Understand the systems approach 3
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Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Characteristics of decision making Groupthink Decision makers are interested in evaluating what-if scenarios Experimentation with the real system may result in failure Experimentation with the real system is possible only for one set of conditions at a time and can be disastrous Changes in the decision making environment may occur continuously, leading to invalidating assumptions about the situation 4
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Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Characteristics of decision making Changes in the decision making environment may affect decision quality by imposing time pressure on the decision maker Collecting information and analyzing a problem takes time and can be expensive . It is difficult to determine when to stop and make a decision There may not be sufficient information to make an intelligent decision Information overload 5
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Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Decision making The action of selecting among alternatives ( ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?   ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ) 6
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Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Phases of the decision process 1. Intelligence 2. Design 3. Choice Problem solving A process in which one starts from an initial state and proceeds to search through a problem space to identify a desired goal. It includes the 4 th phase of the decision process 4. Implementation 7
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Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions Decision making disciplines Behavioral Scientific Successful decision Effectiveness The degree of goal attainment. Doing the right things Efficiency The ratio of output to input. Appropriate use of resources. Doing the things right 8
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Effectiveness ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ?   ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ?  ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Efficiency
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This note was uploaded on 11/19/2011 for the course COMPUTER S 322755 taught by Professor Ngamnit during the Spring '11 term at Chulalongkorn University.

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chapter 2 - Chapter 2 DECISION MAKING, SYSTEMS, MODELING,...

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