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Assignment-4 solutions - Assignment 4 2 a FJuly...

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Assignment 4 2. a. F July = .60(15) + .30(16) + .10(12) = 15.0 b. F July = (15 + 16 + 12) / 3 = 14.3 b. F July = F June + α (A June – F June ) = 13 + .2(15-13) = 13.4 c. x y xy x 2 1 12 12 1 2 11 22 4 3 15 45 9 4 12 48 16 5 16 80 25 6 15 90 36 Total 21 81 297 91 = 3.5 = 13.5 b = = 0.77 a = = 10.8 Y = a + bx = 10.8 + .77x d. F July , where July is the 7 th month. Y = a + bx = 10.8 + .77(7) = 16.2
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3. a. F t+1 = F t + α (A t – F t ), α = .20 Month Demand Forecast Absolute Deviation January 100 80 20 February 94 84 10 March 106 86 20 April 80 90 10 May 68 88 20 June 94 84 10 Total 90 b. MAD = 90/6 = 15
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4. x y Average from same quarter Seasonal factor Deseasonalized demand x 2 x*deseasonalized demand 1 4800 3833.33 1.23 3902.61 1 3902.61 2 3500 2766.67 0.89 3942.77 4 7885.54 3 4300 3500.00 1.12 3829.05 9 11487.14 4 3000 2366.67 0.76 3950.70 16 15802.82 5 3500 1.23 2845.65 25 14228.26 6 2700 0.89 3041.57 36 18249.40 7 3500 1.12 3116.67 49 21816.67 8 2400 0.76 3160.56 64 25284.51 9 3200 1.23 2601.74 81 23415.65 10 2100 0.89 2365.66 100 23656.63 11 2700 1.12 2404.29 121 26447.14 12 1700 0.76 2238.73 144 26864.79 Total 78 37400 37400.00 650 219041.20 = 3116.67 = 6.5 b = = -168.24 a = = 4210.25 Period (x) Y d Seasonal factor Forecast (Y d *seasonal factor) 13 2023.08 1.23 2488.28 14 1854.84 0.89 1646.54 15 1686.60 1.12 1894.04 16 1518.35 0.76 1152.97 11. a-c. For the exponential smoothing forecast we need a beginning forecast for March and an
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