Assignment-4 - Assignment 4 2 a FJuly =.60(15.30(16.10(12 = 15.0 b FJuly =(15 16 12 3 = 14.3 b FJuly = FJune(AJune FJune = 13.2(15-13 = 13.4 c

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Assignment 4 2. a. F July = .60(15) + .30(16) + .10(12) = 15.0 b. F July = (15 + 16 + 12) / 3 = 14.3 b. F July = F June + α (A June – F June ) = 13 + .2(15-13) = 13.4 c. x y xy x 2 1 12 12 1 2 11 22 4 3 15 45 9 4 12 48 16 5 16 80 25 6 15 90 36 Total 21 81 297 91 = 3.5 = 13.5 b = = 0.77 a = = 10.8 Y = a + bx = 10.8 + .77x d. F July , where July is the 7 th month. Y = a + bx = 10.8 + .77(7) = 16.2
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3. a. F t+1 = F t + α (A t – F t ), α = .20 Month Demand Forecast Absolute Deviation January 100 80 20 February 94 84 10 March 106 86 20 April 80 90 10 May 68 88 20 June 94 84 10 Total 90 b. MAD = 90/6 = 15
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4. x y Average from same quarter Seasonal factor Deseasonalized demand x 2 x*deseasonalized demand 1 4800 3833.33 1.23 3902.61 1 3902.61 2 3500 2766.67 0.89 3942.77 4 7885.54 3 4300 3500.00 1.12 3829.05 9 11487.14 4 3000 2366.67 0.76 3950.70 16 15802.82 5 3500 1.23 2845.65 25 14228.26 6 2700 0.89 3041.57 36 18249.40 7 3500 1.12 3116.67 49 21816.67 8 2400 0.76 3160.56 64 25284.51 9 3200
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This note was uploaded on 11/20/2011 for the course ACCOUNTING 2331 taught by Professor Milbrath during the Spring '11 term at University of Houston.

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Assignment-4 - Assignment 4 2 a FJuly =.60(15.30(16.10(12 = 15.0 b FJuly =(15 16 12 3 = 14.3 b FJuly = FJune(AJune FJune = 13.2(15-13 = 13.4 c

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