1004.Chap12 - Chapter 12, Population and Environment Basic...

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Unformatted text preview: Chapter 12, Population and Environment Basic population statistics World Population: 6.9 Billion Pop. Growth Rate: 1.3% per yr. Doubling Time Rule of 70 Doubling Time (yrs.) = 70/Growth Rate(%) EG 70 = 54 years 1.3 70 = 35 years 2.0% Population Growth Rate Crude Rate of Natural Increase = CBR - CDR CBR = [N(Births)/Population Size] * 1000 CDR = [N(Deaths)/Population Size] *1000 The Population Growth Rate (CRNI) Varies MDC 0.1 U.S. 0.6 LDC 1.6 Europe -0.1 Africa 2.4 So. Amer. 1.5 E. Europe -0.5 China 0.7 Asia 1.6 except China Quick history of population growth Population of World Year Years to add one Billion 1 Billion 1800 ---- 2 Billion 1925 125 3 Billion 1960 35 4 Billion 1975 15 5 Billion 1987 12 6 Billion 1999 12 TFR: Total Fertility Rate The number of children the average woman can be expected to have in her lifetime, given the fertility rate at a given time in a given place. (e.g. country). TFR LDC (except China) 3.5 Africa 5.2 Niger Asia (except China) China 8.0 3.1 1.7 Latin America 2.7 Oceania 2.4 U.S. 2.0 Europe 1.4 Is rapid population growth a problem? Food supply Thomas Malthus Food Size Or Amount Population Time Thomas Malthus Positive checks War, famine, epidemic disease Preventive checks Defer marriage Opposed to contraception & abortion Is Rapid Population Growth a Problem? 1. Food supply 2. Environmental impact 3. Economic development Is it appropriate to talk about a “population explosion”? Maybe yes, maybe no No: Growth “only” 1.3% Yes Growth much faster than during most of human history At current rate, population will double in about a half century The Demographic Transition Transition from high to low birth and death rates Three Stages 1. Traditional 2. Transitional growth 3. Modern lag Vital Rates CBR CDR Traditional CRNI Transitional Growth CRNI = CBR - CDR Modern Reasons for the Demographic Transition Falling death rates Technological development • • • • Industrial Agricultural Transportation Medical/public health Birth rate stable Falling birth rates Lower death rates Change in structure of society – Industrialization – Urbanization Specific aspects of social and economic development Social mobility Women working outside the home Family structure Role of children Compare MDCs and LDCs Re: Demographic Transition 1. MDCs at modern stage 2. Decline in death rates faster for LDCs 3. Most LDCs are in the transitional stage Compare MDCs and LDCs re: Population Growth Population CRNI (%) (Bil) Annual increase MDCs 1.2 0.2% 2.4 Mil LDCs 5.7 1.4% 74.2 Mil The momentum of population growth For LDCs, 2-child family now => 60% population growth 15 years => 150% population growth Today in LDCs (except China), average woman expected to have 3.5 children Infant Mortality Rate N Infant deaths per year N births per year LDCs ≈62/1000 U.S. ≈6.7/1000 X 1000 How many infant deaths are there in LDCs? Population about 5.7 Billion CBR about 24/1000 Births about 136,800,000 per year IMR about 59/1000 Infant deaths about 8,071,000 per year Infant deaths about 22,000 per day Reasons for high infant mortality in LDCs Malnutrition Diarrhea Infant formula Role of Infant Formula in Infant Mortality Contaminated water Advantages of Hard to boil bottles breastfeeding No refrigeration Formula is expensive Immune bodies Child spacing The Baby Boom Peak period: 1946 - 1964 Peak year: 1957 Causes: 1. Family re-union after WWII 2. Economic growth in late 40s, 50s 3. Social norms about women Consequences of Baby Boom Decade Impact on Society 1950s Education (Elem) 1960s Education (Elem, HS) Unemployment Crime 1970s Education (College, Elem, HS) Unemployment Fertility 1980s Education (Elem, College) Crime Consequences of Baby Boom Cont. Decade Impact on Society 1990s Older work force 2000s Older work force 2010s Retirement Baby Boom: Unusual Aspects Rise in birth rate followed long term decline in birth rate (150+ years) Rise in birth rate during a period of rising economic fortunes Population Policies Births, deaths, migration China, India, Thailand Family planning program in China “One-child policy” Incentives Opposition Successful; TFR=1.7 A model for others? Thailand A “large” predominantly rural population with a dramatic decline in birth rate 55 to 65 Mil (1969 to 2005) 70% to 80% rural Area: About 5X Virginia Thailand – birth rate TFR 1969: 6.3 Fertility rate down: 40% in 10 years 50% in 15 years 60% in 20 years TFR 2005: 1.7 Thailand – reasons for decline Rapid social and economic change Cultural setting No religious taboos on birth control Status of women relatively high Strong national family planning program since 1969 Thailand - Mechai Mechai Viravaidya: Folk hero of the Thai family planning program Condoms Vasectomy India Nearly as large as China (1.1 Bil) CRNI = 1.7%; TFR = 3.1 First-ever national family planning program (1952) Family planning program didn’t work very well for first 20 years ...
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1004.Chap12 - Chapter 12, Population and Environment Basic...

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