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Quiz 1 Version C-3

Quiz 1 Version C-3 - Quiz 1(Version C-3 Name Honor Code I...

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Quiz 1 (Version C-3) Name: ___________________________ Honor Code: I will not cheat, plagiarize or do anything to gain unfair academic advantage, and I will report anyone that does so to the Honor Council. Signed ___________________________ General Instructions: Show ALL your work and round your FINAL answers to TWO decimal places. Check all your answers there will be no partial credit awarded for wrong answers. 1. The manager at the neighborhood sporting goods store wants to forecast demand for tennis rackets using the weighted moving average forecasting technique. The number of tennis rackets purchased per week for the past 5 weeks is shown in the table below: Use a 2-period weighted moving average to forecast demand for all appropriate weeks. Use weights of .6 for the most recent and 0.4 for the older period, respectively. Fill in the forecast values in each appropriate cell in the table below. (4 points) Grading: 1 point for getting the correct number below in the F t column (4 points total) Period / Week (t) Demand (D t ) 2-Pd WMA Forecast (F t ) 1 26 2 30 3 27 28.4 4 31 28.2 5 36 29.4 6 34 a. Compute the MAPE for the forecast generated in the table below. D t and F t are the observed demand and the forecasted values respectively. The “Error” column in the table above is provided to facilitate your calculation of MAPE. Round all numbers to two decimal places. (2 points)
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Period / Week (t) Demand (D t ) Forecast (F t ) Error (D t - F t ) 1 28 26 2 34 29 3 21 35 4 23 30 5 29 28 Grading: 2 points for getting the correct number below: MAPE = ________ 24.48% b. The manager believes that there is a trend in demand. Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for all appropriate weeks. Assume α = 0.3 and β = 0.5. Also assume that T 1 = D 2 D 1 and that S 1 = D 1 . Fill in the Adjusted Forecast values (F t ) in each appropriate cell in the table below. The “Smoothed Value” and “Smoothed Trend” columns are provided to facilitate your calculation of the Adjusted Forecast values. (4 points) Grading: 1 point for getting the correct number below in the F t column (4 points total) Period (t) Demand (D t ) Adjusted Forecast (F t ) Smoothed Value (S t ) Smoothed Trend (T t ) 1 26 2 30 30 3 27 34 4 31 34.85 5 36.067 d. Suppose that the manager wants to forecast the demand using a linear regression. Upon regressing Demand for against period (ranging from 1 to 4), she finds that the following equation best fits the data.
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