F01-StatProcess

F01-StatProcess - PubH 7405: REGRESSION ANALYSIS...

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Unformatted text preview: PubH 7405: REGRESSION ANALYSIS Instructor: Chap T. Le, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor of Biostatistics Statistical Process & Probability A FAMILIAR SCENARIO: A Crime A Suspect Polices Investigation: Evidence against the suspect Prosecutors Presentation: Exhibitions (summarized evidence) THE PROCESS: Jurors learn the rules & debate: Convict beyond reasonable doubt Unanimous decision The verdict: Guilty or Not Guilty The Process is called TRIAL BY JURY TRIAL BY JURY: THE NEED Why such an expensive process is needed ? (the cost is enormous!) (1) The Truth is unknown, at least uncertain . (2) May be only the suspect knows, but he/she often does not talk RIAL BY JURY: THE REASONS The Truth is unknown/uncertain because: (1) Variability : every case is different (2) Incomplete Information : key evidence (gun, knife, motive, etc...) may be missing! TRIAL BY JURY: RATIONALE Trial by Jury is the way our society deals with uncertainties. Its goal is to minimize errors/mistakes (not to eliminate them; mistakes are still being made every day!) HOW DOES SOCIETY DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTIES ? We form Assumption/ Hypothesis : Every person is innocent until proven guilty (written in our Constitution), We gather data : Evidence against Hypothesis- not against the suspect, then We decide whether Hypothesis should be rejected (If it is, the verdict is Guilty) ELEMENTS OF A SUCCESSFUL TRIAL A probable CAUSE (a crime and a suspect) A thorough INVESTIGATION (by police) An efficient PRESENTATION (by D.A.s office/attorneys- including the organization and summarization of evidence) A fair & impartial ASSESSMENT by Jury where a decision is made . WHY TALKING ABOUT TRIALS BY JURY ? Consider a few other examples : The crime is lung cancer & the suspect is (cigarette) smoking, The crime is leukemia & the suspect is the use of pesticides The crime is breast cancer & the suspect is certain defective gene or genes NEW TERMINOLOGIES In the trials of Smoking, of Pesticides, or of a Defective Gene, the Process is not called Trial by Jury; We call it RESEARCH. The tool, the process , to carry out the needed research is BIOSTATISTICS . Biostatistics is an essential component; there are no research without this needed process. DEFINITION BIOSTATISTICS is the Biomedical Version of the TRIAL BY JURY. It is the science of dealing with uncertainties using incomplete information . Obviously, it is an essential component of Biomedical Research; we have to face uncertainties and, most of the times, we have to rely on incomplete information . HINKING OF MARRIAGE? Statistics may help you to decide! FACTORS TO CONSIDER Median age of first marriage Percent of all marriages (all first marriages) that end in divorce ....
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This note was uploaded on 11/21/2011 for the course PUBH 7405 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at Minnesota.

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F01-StatProcess - PubH 7405: REGRESSION ANALYSIS...

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