Design of the Universe

Design of the Universe - Either the person doesn’t have...

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Kieran Tsai Design of the Universe 1-Feb-11 This universe is immense and complex, and at times it may seem really orderly in our view as to suggest that someone created it with grand design. Unfortunately, I do not believe that is necessary the case by reason, although by gut feeling I do believe. Hence therefore, I do not argue for or against the hypothesis. The reason is due to my study of predicate calculus and probability theory. I frankly don’t see an argument. I shall demonstrate with a simple problem that I have studied in probability theory. It is to do with whether a person was tested to be positive or negative for having a disease. For simplicity, there can only be two outcomes; whether one is tested positive, or one is tested to be negative. Yet, there are two probable causes for each. That is, for a positive result, either the person actually has the disease or the testing procedure failed in its accuracy when the person actually doesn’t have the disease (also known as ‘false-positive’). It is likewise for the negative tests.
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Unformatted text preview: Either the person doesn’t have the disease and was therefore tested negative, or that he has the disease but again the test failed and resulted in a negative. Either way, the point is that by merely observing the outcomes, doesn’t necessary mean that we know for absolute surety what the cause for the outcome is. In probability theory, if we knew the absolute probability of the population that actually has the disease, and the absolute probably of a test failing, then by using a formula named Bayes’ Rule we can calculate the probability of the causes. Hence, likewise, with the design of the universe, unless we’re given that the absolute probabilities of an orderly universe is created by the grand design of a being such as God and the absolute probability that the world is orderly, we cannot be absolutely sure that the cause for this orderly world or chaotic world really is due to grand design or not given the outcome....
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This note was uploaded on 11/25/2011 for the course PHIL 110 taught by Professor Markjones during the Winter '11 term at BYU.

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