STAT1051_chapter4_lesson1-1

# STAT1051_chapter4_lesson1-1 - Chapter4 Probability Contents...

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Chapter 4 Probability

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Contents Introduction and Discussion Basic Definitions Counting Techniques Unions and Intersections  Mutually Exclusive Events Additive Rule Conditional Probability Independence
PROBABILITY Study of randomness and uncertainty Numerical Measure of Chance We make statements like there is a 60%  chance that it will rain tonight.

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Typical Probability Questions: What is the probability of getting a head in a toss  of a coin? What is the probability that it will rain tomorrow? What is the chance that the next U.S president  will be a Democrat? What is the probability of picking a red marble  from a box containing  5 red and 7 blue marbles?
Types of Probability EMPIRICAL OR EXPERIMENTAL  PROBABILITY SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY THEORETICAL PROBABILITY Though all these are questions on probability  not all of them are of the same type.

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Empirical or Experimental Probability P( Event )   = Relative frequency of the event                     Number of occurrences of an event       Number of times experiment is repeated =
Example 1.0 Q : A student was picked randomly from a large  class of 300 students. What is the probability  that he got an A in that course? A : Suppose the instructor gave A to 84 students. P(getting an A in the course) = Relative frequency of A’s in the class) = 84/300 =0.28

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Example 1.1 Toss the coin 100 times and record the  number of heads. Let n(H) = number of heads = 52;
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STAT1051_chapter4_lesson1-1 - Chapter4 Probability Contents...

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