16-page10 - But we can use the Monte Carlo method running...

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Randomness in Simulation • When we simulate a real world situation, we can’t predict the exact behavior of the actors, but often we have an idea of their range of possible behaviors. We can use a random number generator to get one of the many possible scenarios and work out what happens in it. The better our model of the distribution of behaviors, the more plausible our simulation. • This means, of course, that the result of our simulation depends in part on the random numbers generated.
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Unformatted text preview: But we can use the Monte Carlo method , running lots of independent simulations, to get an idea of the distribution of possible results according to the assumptions of our simulation. • This technique is widely used in sports analysis, such as the website coolstandings.com (which said in early September that the Red Sox had a 99% chance of making the playoffs). Nate Silver, now of the New York Times , is the most famous practitioner of this technique in political analysis....
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