0203se05sust_cha - Sustainability and Energy E.M Drake...

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Unformatted text preview: Sustainability and Energy ? E.M. Drake, February 3, 2005 • Is present society energy sustainable? • What are the problems with present energy use? • How can change be driven? • Consequences of no action World Population (thousands) 7000 ) 6000 5000 4000 population (thousands 3000 2000 1000 0 2 1 9 5 1 9 1 8 5 1 8 1 7 5 1 7 1 6 5 Are There Limits? • Malthus – 1798 – Population grows exponentially; food production grows linearly. Population growth ceases when incremental person doesn’t have resources to survive • Hardin – 1968 – Tragedy of the Commons • Ehrlichs – 1968 – Overpopulation is the problem, depleting soils and disrupting natural life support ecosystems • Forrester – 1972 – Limits to Growth – potential for disaster within 100 years • Meadows – 1992 – Beyond the Limits – overshoot but human ingenuity could prevent collapse • Cohen – 1995 – How many people can Earth support? (maybe a trillion, more likely around 16 billion) 1999 Per Capita Average Energy Use for Selected Countries Tons of Oil Equivalent per person per year 8 4 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 World Average = 1.4 TOE/person-year 7.3 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.140.08 0.7 0.4 TOE/person-year USA Canada Norway Netherlands Saudi Arabia Russia Japan Germany U.K. Switzerland Kazakhstan Mexico Brazil China Egypt India Africa Bangladesh World Income Distribution (1993) and Human Concerns as a function of Income Level 400 300 200 100 0 Food Mobility Health/education Shelter Safe water/sanitation GHG Clean air Population – million people C o n c e r n s 100 300 1,000 3,000 10,000 Purchasing Power Parity – US$ per annum (log scale) Percentage shares of world population, world GDP, and world commercial energy consumption for selected countries. Country % of World Population 2001 % of World GDP 2002 % of World Energy Consumption 2002 United States 4.6% 32% 24% Japan 2.0% 12% 5% France 0.9% 4% 3% Germany 1.4% 6% 4% United Kingdom 1.0% 5% 2% China 20% 4% 11% India 17% 2% 4% The Greenhouse Gamble [sample forecasts of future temperature change] Temperature change from 1990 0 o F 5 o F o F Noise band Adapted from MIT Joint Program estimates of range of credible scenarios 10 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Carbon emission factors from energy use • CO 2 = Pop x (GDP/pop) x (Btu/GDP) x (CO 2 /Btu) - Seq – GDP/pop represents standard of living...
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0203se05sust_cha - Sustainability and Energy E.M Drake...

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