0203se05sust_cha - Sustainability and Energy ? E.M. Drake,...

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Unformatted text preview: Sustainability and Energy ? E.M. Drake, February 3, 2005 Is present society energy sustainable? What are the problems with present energy use? How can change be driven? Consequences of no action World Population (thousands) 7000 ) 6000 5000 4000 population (thousands 3000 2000 1000 0 2 1 9 5 1 9 1 8 5 1 8 1 7 5 1 7 1 6 5 Are There Limits? Malthus 1798 Population grows exponentially; food production grows linearly. Population growth ceases when incremental person doesnt have resources to survive Hardin 1968 Tragedy of the Commons Ehrlichs 1968 Overpopulation is the problem, depleting soils and disrupting natural life support ecosystems Forrester 1972 Limits to Growth potential for disaster within 100 years Meadows 1992 Beyond the Limits overshoot but human ingenuity could prevent collapse Cohen 1995 How many people can Earth support? (maybe a trillion, more likely around 16 billion) 1999 Per Capita Average Energy Use for Selected Countries Tons of Oil Equivalent per person per year 8 4 4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 World Average = 1.4 TOE/person-year 7.3 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.140.08 0.7 0.4 TOE/person-year USA Canada Norway Netherlands Saudi Arabia Russia Japan Germany U.K. Switzerland Kazakhstan Mexico Brazil China Egypt India Africa Bangladesh World Income Distribution (1993) and Human Concerns as a function of Income Level 400 300 200 100 0 Food Mobility Health/education Shelter Safe water/sanitation GHG Clean air Population million people C o n c e r n s 100 300 1,000 3,000 10,000 Purchasing Power Parity US$ per annum (log scale) Percentage shares of world population, world GDP, and world commercial energy consumption for selected countries. Country % of World Population 2001 % of World GDP 2002 % of World Energy Consumption 2002 United States 4.6% 32% 24% Japan 2.0% 12% 5% France 0.9% 4% 3% Germany 1.4% 6% 4% United Kingdom 1.0% 5% 2% China 20% 4% 11% India 17% 2% 4% The Greenhouse Gamble [sample forecasts of future temperature change] Temperature change from 1990 0 o F 5 o F o F Noise band Adapted from MIT Joint Program estimates of range of credible scenarios 10 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Carbon emission factors from energy use CO 2 = Pop x (GDP/pop) x (Btu/GDP) x (CO 2 /Btu) - Seq GDP/pop represents standard of living...
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0203se05sust_cha - Sustainability and Energy ? E.M. Drake,...

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