0208se05energysd -...

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1.818J/2.65J/3.564J/10.391J/11.371J/22.811J/ESD166J SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Prof. Michael W. Golay Nuclear Engineering Dept. 1
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Energy Supply, Demand, and Storage Planning The Example of Electricity
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PRESENTATION OUTLINE I. Introduction II. Demand Variations for Electricity III. Electricity Supply Availability IV. Locational-Based Electricity Markets 3
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INTRODUCTION Due to Large Fluctuations in Supply and Demand, Energy Systems Must be Able to Respond to Changing Conditions in Order to Meet Consumer Energy Needs Across Time and Space Examples Oil products: home heating oil and gasoline Natural gas Electricity is the Most Pronounced Example 4
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I. Demand Variations 5
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ANNUAL AND SEASONAL DEMAND VARIATIONS • Annual Driven by economic growth Rough rule of thumb o Developed economies: electric growth rates approximately equal to economic growth rates o Developing economies: electric growth rates approximately twice that of economic growth rates • Seasonal Changes Due to Weather Changes in usage (e.g., lighting, air conditioning) 6
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WEEKLY AND DAILY DEMAND VARIATIONS Weekly Variations Driven by Business Day vs. Holiday/Weekend Daily Variations Driven by Time of Day, Weather, and to a Small Extent Spot Electricity Prices (so far) 7
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HOURLY ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN NEW ENGLAND DURING TYPICAL SUMMER AND WINDER MONDAYS AND SUNDAYS 0 ) i i 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Demand (MW Sunday-Summer Sunday-W nter Monday-W nter Monday-Summer 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 01 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 92 02 12 22 32 4 Hour Ending 8 1
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ANNUAL LOAD DURATION CURVE MegaWatt Area is the amount of MWh consumed during the peak hour of the year during the penultimate peak hour of the year Area is the amount of MWh consumed 1 2 8760 Hours 9
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USEFUL FACTS REGARDING DEMAND VARIATIONS Demand is an Empirically Determined Probability Distribution Usually with a “Long Tail” Lognormal type shape Sometimes modeled as a Gamma Distribution Probability MW • Summer Peaks are More Pronounced Than Winter Peaks 10
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