0224se05toolbox - Systems Analysis Methodologies...

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Systems Analysis Methodologies Sustainable Energy “Toolbox” Lecture E. M. Drake February 24, 2005
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The Systems Approach ± What is the problem? Who are stakeholders? ± What are the questions and issues? ± What are the decision options? ± How do they fit into a bigger picture? ± Are any obviously ridiculous? (Why?) ± What are the uncertainties? ± Are there feedbacks? ± Can I get more information to help make a better decision? (At what cost and delay?) ± How do I discount costs and impacts in the future?
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Types of Analysis ± Scoping analysis (“back-of-envelope”) ± Simulation models ± Economic models (micro- and macro) ± Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA) ± Risk Assessment Techniques ± Systems Dynamics Models ± Decision Models ± Optimization with respect to parameter or function ± Multi-attribute trade-off analysis ± Delphior other group consensus techniques
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How to choose analysis method? ± Start with simple scoping analysis ± What is the nature of the system? ± Complex? Linear? Feedbacks? Well-known? Single or multiple attributes of concern? Constraints? ± Who is/are decisionmaker/s? Their stakes? ± Who are other stakeholders? Vested interests? ± What are timing issues? ± Can changes be made later? Cost of delay? Value of seeking more information?
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The Energy Challenge ± If we have to change our energy technologies over a relatively short period of time, where are the best alternatives? ± How should we invest in developing better alternatives? ± What are the drivers that will encourage timely development and market penetration of these technologies? ± Do we also have to change behaviors?
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Scoping Analysis- an example ± Should China build more energy efficient housing complexes or less efficient ones and extra power plants? ± What are the initial capital cost differences? ± What is the annual operating cost difference? ± What is the life cycle cost difference? BUT, if the answer is not obvious, need more work!! ± What are differences in GHG emissions? Materials use? Waste production? Land impacts? Customer satisfaction? etc.
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Simulation Analysis - examples ± Development of a computer simulation model that reflects the behavior of a complex system ± Model of the electricity production, transmission, and demand system to study system behaviors, costs, emissions, etc. under varying operational and use strategies ± Model of a hybrid automobile to evaluate tradeoffs between engine size, performance, and electricity storage needs ± etc. ± Results are only as good as the model!
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Economic Analysis ± Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom up) approaches ± Used to assess alternatives when the major impact of concern is economic ± Varies from detailed cost estimation models to minimize production costs, to ± Global trade models to study impacts of various trade policies and local economic conditions on the world economy ± If other attributes are important, they must be addressed as fixed costs or “externality costs” ± Cost-Benefit models, Input-Output models, Optimization models, etc.
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0224se05toolbox - Systems Analysis Methodologies...

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