10.393J Spring 2007
Module 2 Fossil Fuels and Carbon Management
Due March 8, 2007
Circa 2004 EIA estimates of the total U.S. coal resource and proven reserves are 1.7
trillion and 271 billion short tons, respectively. While estimates of proven reserves are
likely to increase over time, as economic incentives and advanced technologies develop,
limitations are imposed by factors such as poor quality (high impurity levels), storage at
depths of several miles or more below the Earth’s surface, and/or storage beneath
developed land. A plausible estimate of recoverable reserves is 150% of current proven
reserves, or 406.5 billion short tons (BST).
(a) Year-2004 coal production in the U.S. was approximately 1.11 BST. What was the
corresponding reserve-to-production ratio for proven reserves of 271 BST? For the
estimated recoverable reserves of 406.5 BST?
(b) Assuming a 1.5% annual growth in demand from a year-2004 value of 1.11 BST,
determine projected demand for the years 2020, 2050, 2100 and 2200.
(c) Using an ultimate recoverable resource
of 476.2 BST (the amount of coal used
through 2005, 69.7 BST, plus an estimated recoverable reserve of 406.5 BST) and fitting
historic coal production data with a Gaussian distribution, values of the standard
and year of peak production
were found to be 93 years and 2107,
respectively. Determine the corresponding estimates of production for the years 2020,
2050, 2100 and 2200. Relative to projected demand, what is the excess production
capacity, or under capacity, for the designated years? What fraction of the ultimate
recoverable resource will be produced by the years 2020, 2050, 2100 and 2200?
(d) Briefly comment on factors that will influence future demand for coal. Is an annual
growth estimate of 1.5% too high or low?
Nominal higher heating values, mass densities and carbon intensities are tabulated for
gasoline, No. 2 diesel, ethanol and liquid hydrogen.
No. 2 Diesel
(a) For each fuel, determine the volumetric energy density (MJ/gal) and CO
due to combustion (kg-CO
Cite as: Frank Incropera, course materials for 10.391J/1.818J/2.65J/11.371J/22.811J/ESD.166J Sustainable Energy,
IAP 2007 to Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].