poli mid

poli mid - SurveyResearch:MethodandHistory 03:38...

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Survey Research: Method and History 03:38 Perspectives Micro Individuals as focus of analysis Macro System level, how politicians and electorates interact over time Commercial surveys Customer ordinarily has no basis on which to evaluate quality of research Doing it right is expensive, doing it wrong it profitable Survey Research Method Focus is empirical Study and explanation of what “is”, not what should be Systematic study of ordinary people Randomness Equal chance of being chosen It is impossible to predict in advance which units would be selected, because nothing  that you can know about them is related to the selection process Avoid unrepresentative sample with systematic procedures Eliminates bias History Series of attempts, some dramatic failures, to find almost-random methods Gimmicks to boost magazine sells Straw Polls NEVER reliable or valid Street corner Bias Atypical people not representative of population Area probability Cluster Sampling Divide population into small areas,  primary sampling units
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1. Select areas randomly in proportion to their known population 2. Within PSU, select household randomly by geographic methods 3. Select household members randomly Random Digit Dialing 1. Sample prefix’s in proportion to their use in the area to be studied 2. Randomly draw the final four digits Sampling method is ok, result is not, refutation of participation
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Early Voter Studies 03:38 Expected Attributes Well informed Views on abortion, tax cuts, conservation Interested In tune with campaign, debates, conventions, etc. Concerned It matters who wins Intense feelings about issues Rational Votes as means to get what they want from Gov. Found Attributes Not well informed Not a lot of interest Rationality Goal oriented behavior Early evidence negative The problem is interest, not ignorance Overestimated political importance Shallow opinion holding Most systematic bias of political reporting Overestimate the importance of politics in people lives Media needs drama Campaign Influence, Groups, and Introduction to Social-Psychological Model Expectations about the Political Campaign Radio seen as a source of influence and propaganda  Campaign didn’t seem to matter
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Early Voter Studies 03:38 Activation of latent support into active support Two Explanations for failed influence Voters hear what they want to hear, ignore everything else Message influences Opinion Leaders influence opinion followers Followers have high trust in leaders, known to them as primary groups Media influence
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The American Voter and Funnel of Causality  03:38 Group Perspective Accounts for only stability Communications Doesn’t explain change Much more stable the stability explanation and much more variable than 
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poli mid - SurveyResearch:MethodandHistory 03:38...

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