Lecture5

Lecture5 - Lecture #21: Presidential Campaigns Seen Through...

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Lecture #21: Presidential Campaigns Seen Through Horse Race Polls Do Polls Predict the Winner? o Election Eve Yes, within one or two points o Early in the campaign Around April, it’s a tossup, essentially 50/50 Problem o Primary and caucus voters use polls to tell them which candidate would be strongest for their party These polls are essentially worthless but have a big impact Why are early polls worthless? o Non attitudes o 75% of Americans don’t know who they’d vote for at this point Three Stories of Presidential Elections o The Press Story Always interpret the outcome as a matter of skill and strategy Always portray the loser as inept and mad at campaigning Even Al Gore, who won the 2000 popular vote, received this o The Ad Campaign Campaign managers ignore what goes on on the road To them the campaign is about ads and building an image Who wins is about who has a better understanding of image and advertising Vastly overrate the power of advertising
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This note was uploaded on 11/27/2011 for the course POLI 100 taught by Professor Rabinowitz during the Fall '07 term at UNC.

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Lecture5 - Lecture #21: Presidential Campaigns Seen Through...

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