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383-Fall11-Lec14-page14 - Earthquake Alarm JohnCalls...

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14 Example: Home security I'm at work, and my neighbor John calls to say my alarm is ringing, but my neighbor Mary doesn't call. We live in California, and sometimes the alarm is set off by minor earthquakes. Is there a burglar? Variables: Burglary ,
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Unformatted text preview: Earthquake , Alarm , JohnCalls , MaryCalls • We have some probabilistic “causal” knowledge: • A burglar can set the alarm off • An earthquake can set the alarm off • The alarm can cause Mary to call • The alarm can cause John to call...
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