CP_induc_post - STAGES OF INDUCTIVE REASONING list current...

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STAGES OF INDUCTIVE REASONING list current evidence P1: Jane smiles at me in class P2: Jane asked if we could study together form hypotheses: possible conclusions that see implied by the evidence Ci: ? Jane needs help in the class Cj: ? Jane wants to see me socially evaluate probability that each hypothesis is true Ci: .30 Cj: .80 search for new evidence P3: Bob says that Jane failed the first exam revise probabilities in light of new evidence Ci: .30 .75 Cj: .80 .30
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OBSTACLES TO “INDUCTIVE RATIONALITY” ignore potential hypotheses ignore potential evidence misinterpret evidence err in estimates of hypotheses’ probabilities bias in searching for new evidence ignore prior probabilities when new evidence is considered
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HEURISTICS OF INDUCTIVE REASONING AVAILABILITY ease of generating instances (sample) from memory death from diabetes or accident? words with “k” in first or third position? estimates of quantities “anchor” our judgments about possible error ease of imagining outcomes (“simulation”) can be biased by actual outcomes (hindsight bias) REPRESENTATIVENESS “typical” events and outcomes are judged more likely than others HHHHTTTT or THHTHTTH? is Linda a bank teller and feminist?
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AVAILABILITY AND DECISION MAKING (Alba, 1992) task: given several arguments for and against a current issue (e.g., universal health care), “vote” on issue 2 strong arguments for program 4 weak arguments against program vote occurs. . immediate 2 days % voting for program: 68% __% 42
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AVAILABILITY AND ILLUSORY CORRELATIONS Eats Doesn’t eat spinach spinach Can barpress own weight 15 9 Can’t barpress own weight 5 __ positive instances may be more available in memory than negative “instances” 3
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ESTIMATING EVERYDAY RISKS being killed by lightning 1 in 2 million being killed by husband or lover 1 in 800,000 emergency treatment for injury from sink or toilet 1 in 7,500 dying in childbirth 1 in 12,000 Paling, 1994
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Two hospitals in town One has mean of 45 births / day One has mean of 15 births / day Both count days with >60% males.
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This note was uploaded on 11/29/2011 for the course EXP 3604 taught by Professor Fasig during the Spring '08 term at University of Florida.

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CP_induc_post - STAGES OF INDUCTIVE REASONING list current...

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