511_Chap1 - Stat 511 Chap 1 1 Drawing Statistical...

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Unformatted text preview: Stat 511 Chap 1 1 Drawing Statistical Conclusions Chapter 1 Stat 511 Chap 1 2 • “carefully examining data to answer questions of interest” (Ramsey and Schafer) ❧ estimating the unobservable “things” of science ❧ What is an example of an unobservable “thing” of science? ❧ Example – the proportion of all US citizens who favor President Obama’s heath care reform? Statistical Sleuthing Stat 511 Chap 1 3 What is a statistician? ❧ An individual who wanted to be an accountant but couldn’t stand the lack of excitement! ❧ Actually, accounting is a sub-field of statistics ❧ But, they would never admit that Stat 511 Chap 1 4 Statistics Physical Realm Data Concl- usion Summary Model Feel Good Guestimate P h y s i c a l I n t e r p r e t a t i o n Statistics Model Fit to Data I n t e r p r e t a t i o n Stat 511 Chap 1 5 Case Studies ❧ Each chapter of our text begins with two case studies ❧ These are published studies of real data. Stat 511 Chap 1 6 Case Studies 1. Motivation and Creativity • random assignment of 47 students to one of two groups (‘intrinsic’ or ‘extrinsic’) • groups defined by questionnaires to induce thought patterns • creativity score: students’ Haiku poems were rated by experts • intrinsic group: rating ranged from 12 to 29.7, with an average of 19.88 • extrinsic group: rating ranged from 5 to 24, with an average of 15.74 Stat 511 Chap 1 7 Case Studies • blinding: students didn’t know their thought patterns were being influenced (nor did raters) • is there evidence that creativity scores are affected by type of motivation induced by questionnaires? 1. Motivation and Creativity (cont.) Stat 511 Chap 1 8 Randomization ❧ This study did take a set of students and randomized them so that which group each student was in was randomly selected. ❧ Therefore, we may conclude that the differences in the creativity scores is a result of which questionnaire was given to the students Stat 511 Chap 1 9 Non-Randomization ❧ However, the students were NOT randomly selected from a larger population. ❧ So we cannot automatically assume that the result of this experiment will generalize to the population as a whole. Stat 511 Chap 1 10 2. Sex Discrimination • salaries noted for all 32 male and 61 female entry-level clerks hired by the Harris Trust and Savings Bank between 1969 and 1977 • called an “observational study” because the groups were not created in the study Case Studies Stat 511 Chap 1 11 Case Studies • salaries were quite variable: • male salaries ranged from $4620 to $8100, with an average of $5957 • female salaries ranged from $3900 to $6300, with an average of $5137 • is there evidence that males as a group received higher starting salaries than females at Harris Bank?...
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511_Chap1 - Stat 511 Chap 1 1 Drawing Statistical...

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