10:6:10 Notes

10:6:10 Notes - International Security Notes 6 October 2010...

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International Security Notes 6 October 2010 The War Puzzle (Fearon/Blainey) War is costly and risky wars may be lost wars may be protracted and bloody short, successful wars imply dead-weight costs most issues are divisible and negotiable Solutions 1 (Blainey) Disagreements over capabilities: war occurs because states disagree about relative power biases complexity private information Disagreements over resolve: war occurs when states don’t know how willing other states are to ±ght pushing states right up to their “reservation value,” i.e., the worst possible deal they prefer to war probability of war therefore increases as more time passes from the past war Solution 2 (Fearon) Incentives to misrepresent “While states have an incentive to avoid the costs of war, they also wish to obtain a favorable resolution of the issue. This latter desire can give them an incentive to exaggerate their true willingness or capability to ±ght.
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10:6:10 Notes - International Security Notes 6 October 2010...

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