2-23-11 - 2/23/11 Post-WWII CONSEQUENCES 1. Nuclear weapons...

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2/23/11 Post-WWII CONSEQUENCES 1. Nuclear weapons has a huge effect on BOP o Is this or is bipolarity the force for peace? If nukes, then doesn’t matter how many great powers there can be; will always have peace 2. Bipolarity = system that emerges from WWII More stable? o US has half the world’s GDP. Soviet Union has a huge power in Eurasia US draws down its #s of troops and relies on nukes to contain the USSR o Bipolarity is more stable than multipolarity. Star = Peace + durability No great power ever emerged after the invention of nukes o Because 2 states must internally balance – no balancing coalitions possible o Multipolarity: Rely on alliances, prone to buckpassing Uncertainty of BOP, who will be in your alliance, whether they’ll stay in your alliance o Far more reliable expectations; certainty about BOP increased o A decr. in # of great powers change from external to internal balancing decreasing uncertainty, more stability Another theory about bipolarity being less stable: o Because you have a shortage of alternative partners, and only 1 important relation, there’s a lot of tension o Arms races o Although the Cold War was actually very stable o 2 nd half of the 20 th cent. = no great power war for more than 50 years; has not happened since Roman Empire NUKES Things that change w/ nukes: o 1. Nobody can win an all-out nuclear war o 2. You cannot protect yourself even if you win (victory can become meaningless?) Armed forces can’t do anything to protect o 3. War as a tool to achieve political goals changes States w/ military power try to influence/bully other states. W/ nukes, this is not the case. States cannot change the status quo as easily. Military power cannot become political power, so its importance decr. Before: Utility of military power comes from its non-use When mutual assured destruction (MAD) kicks in (not nukes’ invention) o So big difference is the world w/o nukes and the world in which 2 states have nukes Consequences:
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2-23-11 - 2/23/11 Post-WWII CONSEQUENCES 1. Nuclear weapons...

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