2-28-11 - 2/28/11 Cold War NUKES 6 concepts o 1. 1st and...

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2/28/11 Cold War NUKES 6 concepts o 1. 1 st and 2 nd strike capabilities o 2. Nuclear revolution and MAD o 3. Direct and extended deterrence (type I and II) o 4. Escalation – stability and instability paradox o 5. How to extract political influence from weapons so powerful they would destroy both sides 3 tactics: rationality of irrationality, tying your hands, salami tactics o 6. Counterforce vs. countervalue as targets for nukes Counterforce o Having a nuclear arsenal aimed at the other side’s nuclear arsenal o Wedded to a 1 st strike strategy – no point in going 2 nd (empty silus) o Must be prepared to be the first one to escalate to nukes profound political implications Countervalue o Targeting the other side’s population and industrial capability – moral implications too o If you want to not be the first one to escalate to nukes (only use it for retaliatory, NOT like it was during the cold war (then it was escalation)) WWII ends, USSR has 3mil troops in Europe o Borders of Poland are moved west. o US must draw down its conventional forces quickly b/c Truman knows it will be hard to persuade the population to stay engaged relies on nuclear retaliation (to deter a Soviet attack on Berlin w/ its conventional superiority) o Berlin is within E. Germany. Berlin had 4 zones. W. Berlin was connected to W. Germany by a highway. All around it was Soviet territory (and USSR did implement a blockade at one point) o ’45-’49: US has nuclear primacy. ’49: USSR gets nukes and US has 126,000 troops (vs. USSR has 800,000 troops) in Germany o So early cold war (’45-’49): US’s policy was massive retaliation w/o the means to inflict any retaliation US actually had very few nukes until ’49 when it started manufacturing lots more o By ’52, USSR has the ability to strike back. These nukes are bombers, not missiles US realizes that massive retaliation is not credible (b/c far more costly) and will lead to destruction
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2-28-11 - 2/28/11 Cold War NUKES 6 concepts o 1. 1st and...

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