4-18-11 - CHINA(peer competitors Other theories that...

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4/18/11 – CHINA (peer competitors) Other theories that explain how the world works, other than BOP: liberalism and social constructivism Will China’s rise be peaceful, or will it lead to a hegemonic war like WWI/II? Opinion: No, because o Nuclear weapons we both have, so the cost of war went up o Economic interdependence o Public opinion 1. Democracy – the US is a democracy, and leaders are thus accountable to public opinion, which is always against war. Key: institutions of democracy 2. Public opinion itself has changed. It’s not accountability, but people have changed the way they think about what’s legitimate and now they think that war is not a legitimate way of conducting affairs Arguments in favor of unipolarity theories (moment, age, destiny) o Military competition o Why Unipolarity will NOT continue o BOP argument: states balance against concentrations of power. US has too much power. o Balance of threat argument: threat is composed by 4 elements, only one of which is power (military) 2. Geographic proximity. Thus the US is in pretty good shape 3. Offensive capabilities – US has a lot of it, which is bad news 4. Intentions Is there scope for the US to not be threatening? Thus a lot of it hinges on intentions of the US – how states signal their intentions to other states Arguments of why unipolarity will continue o 1. Hegemonic argument – US has too much power for any state to balance. US has passed the threshold. o 2. Liberalism – basic tension to the types of domestic politics and institutional arrangements. 3 strains: 1. Economic interdependence, which puts a brake on great power competition. More complicated than raw material dependence on other states. Though realists think interdependence increase conquering
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4-18-11 - CHINA(peer competitors Other theories that...

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