lec11b - FAMES ESD.04 / 1.041 Spring 2007 THE CLIOS PROCESS...

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Unformatted text preview: FAMES ESD.04 / 1.041 Spring 2007 THE CLIOS PROCESS STAGE 2: DESIGN, EVALUATION AND SELECTION STAGE 3: IMPLEMENTATION (INTRODUCTORY COMMENTS) PART III March 13, 2007 and forward SPEAKER: Joseph M. Sussman MIT Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 2 Step 9: Evaluate Strategic Alternatives and Select Robust Bundles that Perform “Best” Across Futures (2) ¡ Evaluation of alternatives according to performance measures ¡ Assess trade-offs-- optimization is difficult (evaluative complexity) ¡ Engineering-based or cost-benefit analysis ¡ Assess the possible impacts on: ¡ Other components of the same subsystem layer ¡ Other subsystems ¡ Different actors on the institutional sphere ¡ Some modeling and quantitative analysis is central to this step ¡ Create robust bundles of strategic alternatives – where robustness is the ability to perform reasonably well in different futures Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 3 Performance of Bundles across different Futures Discussion-- which bundle would you choose? Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 4 Evaluative Complexity Rears its Head! What does “good performance” mean? “Optimizing” not a realistic goal – finding something that works is more realistic. Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 5 Do we optimize? This is NOT the world of and we are all done....
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This note was uploaded on 11/29/2011 for the course CIVIL 1.018j taught by Professor Markusbuehler during the Fall '08 term at MIT.

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lec11b - FAMES ESD.04 / 1.041 Spring 2007 THE CLIOS PROCESS...

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