lec21 - FAMES ESD.04 1.041 Spring 2007 Scenario Planning...

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Unformatted text preview: FAMES ESD.04 / 1.041 Spring 2007 Scenario Planning Lecture 21 Displays May 1, 2007 SPEAKER: Joseph M. Sussman MIT Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 2 PRACTICE When you are not practicing, remember, someone somewhere is practicing, and when you meet him he will win.-- Ed Macauley (as quoted by Bill Bradley in John McPhee's "A Sense of Where You Are”) Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 3 REHEARSING THE FUTURE (Planning) ..indicates trade-offs that may be necessary, sets boundaries so that possibilities can be carefully accessed, simulates plausible scenarios, integrates ideas and forces people to think about consequences. Additionally, it can put management on what Jivan Tabibian calls and "anticipatory alert", so that it is better prepared for the unexpected.-- Richard Farson in Management of the Absurd Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 4 SCENARIOS ¡ Introductory Concepts ¡ Schwartz’ View Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 5 SCENARIOS INTRODUCTORY CONCEPTS Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 6 WHAT IS A SCENARIO? ¡ What is a scenario as we will use the term here? ¡ It’s a story (and it may be fun to construct) but it’s NOT just an ordinary story ¡ It’s a structured, plausible, internally-consistent, comprehensive story about the future ¡ Based on careful research and quality thinking ¡ Informed by “remarkable people” with special insights about the future Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. 7 WHY SCENARIOS? ¡ The FAMES problem space ¡ Uncertainty is everywhere -- deal with it ¡ Nested Complexity ¡ Scenarios are a high-level mechanism for understanding uncertainty dealing with fundamental changes in our world ¡ Different worlds, not just different outcomes in the same world (Wack) ¡ Scenarios is not a forecasting method -- it is a method for conceiving alternative futures, so as to be prepared for them....
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This note was uploaded on 11/29/2011 for the course CIVIL 1.018j taught by Professor Markusbuehler during the Fall '08 term at MIT.

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lec21 - FAMES ESD.04 1.041 Spring 2007 Scenario Planning...

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