lec23 - SYSTEM DYNAMICS 101 FAMES Sgouris Sgouridis MIT...

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1 SYSTEM DYNAMICS 101 FAMES Sgouris Sgouridis MIT Cambridge, MA May, 2 nd 2006 Cite as: Joseph Sussman, and Sgouris Sgouridis, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].
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2 System Dynamics Overview • System dynamics: – a way of thinking – a modeling tool • Basic SD premise: – “Policy resistance” can be anticipated through systems thinking. – SD facilitates systems thinking by model construction and visualization of the modeled system behavior. Cite as: Joseph Sussman, and Sgouris Sgouridis, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].
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3 Policy Resistance • A definition: unanticipated effects of well- intentioned solutions. – Related to behavioral complexity. • Some examples: – Antibiotics and drug-resistant strains. – Fire suppression and forest fires. – Proliferation of taxis in San Diego. – California’s deregulation of electricity markets. • Can you think of others? Cite as: Joseph Sussman, and Sgouris Sgouridis, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].
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4 SD as a way of thinking: Exposing mindsets Source: Sterman 2002 Cite as: Joseph Sussman, and Sgouris Sgouridis, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. Figures by MIT OpenCourseWare, adapted from Sterman. Goals Situation Problem Decision Results The open-loop, event-oriented view of the world Decisions Environment Decisions Environment Actions of others Our decisions alter our environment, leading to new decisions, Goals Side effects Goals of other agents but also triggering side effects, delayed reactions, changes in goals and interventions by others. These feedbacks may lead to unanticipated results and ineffective policies. The feedback view of the world Goals
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5 Some drivers of policy resistance: • Time-delays • Non-linearities • Feedback Cite as: Joseph Sussman, and Sgouris Sgouridis, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY].
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6 Shower: a metaphor and the origin of SD • Achieving the right temperature is a control
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lec23 - SYSTEM DYNAMICS 101 FAMES Sgouris Sgouridis MIT...

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