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Unformatted text preview: FAMES Risk Assessment / Benefit Cost Analysis 1 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ESD.04/1.041J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems (FAMES) Spring 2007 Solutions for Qualifying Problem Instructor: Professor Joseph Sussman Issued: Thursday May 3rd, 2007 Topics: Risk Assessment. Benefit Cost Analysis. Applications, insights, drawbacks. Questions In Parts 1 and 2 you are expected to base your answers only on the data given in the assignment. Note that these are stylized for simplicity. In Part 3 you should use the knowledge from the class discussion and the readings along with your own reasoning to answer the questions. System Description We will consider a simplified situation of the SNF transportation and storage CLIOS System as shown in Figure 1. There are 6 sites where SNF is currently stored numbered from 1 to 6 and marked as grey triangles on the map. There are two proposals for storing the fuel: (i) using a single centralized long-term facility (Marked X), or (ii) using two shorter-term smaller centralized facilities marked A and B. Finding acceptable sites for this use was hard and their position currently satisfies both political and scientific constraints for the anticipated length of storage. As a result identifying other potential areas or routes is not an alternative at this point. The transportation of SNF is expected to be completed within 10 years. SNF can be transported either by rail OR by truck i.e. no hybrid transportation solutions can be implemented. Table 1 displays information about the network routes that have already been found to provide the minimum exposure of general population while SNF is en route. Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]. FAMES Risk Assessment / Benefit Cost Analysis 2 Table 1: Network distances and Population Centers OD pair Highway Distance (in miles) Number of Cities Population Rail adjustment 1A 300 1 300.000 x1.1 2A 150 3 100.000 each x1.2 3A 350 1 50.000 x0.9 4B 150 3 75.000 each x1 5B 200 1 50.000 x1.3 6B 300 1 1.000.000 x0.8 BA 1000 4 100.000 each x1.1 AX 1500 5 50.000 each x1.1 Assume that all urban areas have a radius of 5 miles. Note that for rail access multiply the distances by the given factor. X A B 1 2 3 4 5 6 Figure 1: SNF System Network (not in scale for illustration purposes only) The amount of SNF in each site has been calculated in container loads for your convenience (you have good staff!) as shown in Table 2. Table 2 SNF Quantities in Container loads 1 2 3 4 5 6 2600 3000 4600 1000 4000 5000 Cite as: Joseph Sussman, course materials for ESD.04J Frameworks and Models in Engineering Systems, Spring 2007. MIT OpenCourseWare (http://ocw.mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Downloaded on [DD Month YYYY]....
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