val2day09 - Advanced Valuation Aswath Damodaran...

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Aswath Damodaran 1 Advanced Valuation Aswath Damodaran http://www.damodaran.com For the valuations in this presentation, go to Seminars/ Presentations
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Aswath Damodaran 2 Some Initial Thoughts " One hundred thousand lemmings cannot be wrong" GrafFti
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Aswath Damodaran 3 Misconceptions about Valuation Myth 1: A valuation is an objective search for “true” value Truth 1.1: All valuations are biased. The only questions are how much and in which direction. Truth 1.2: The direction and magnitude of the bias in your valuation is directly proportional to who pays you and how much you are paid. Myth 2.: A good valuation provides a precise estimate of value Truth 2.1: There are no precise valuations Truth 2.2: The payoff to valuation is greatest when valuation is least precise. Myth 3: . The more quantitative a model, the better the valuation Truth 3.1: One’s understanding of a valuation model is inversely proportional to the number of inputs required for the model. Truth 3.2: Simpler valuation models do much better than complex ones.
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Aswath Damodaran 4 Approaches to Valuation Discounted cashfow valuation , relates the value of an asset to the present value of expected future cashFows on that asset. Relative valuation , estimates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of 'comparable' assets relative to a common variable like earnings, cashFows, book value or sales. Contingent claim valuation , uses option pricing models to measure the value of assets that share option characteristics.
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Aswath Damodaran 5 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation What is it : In discounted cash fow valuation, the value o± an asset is the present value o± the expected cash fows on the asset. Philosophical Basis : Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be estimated, based upon its characteristics in terms o± cash fows, growth and risk. Information Needed : To use discounted cash fow valuation, you need to estimate the li±e o± the asset to estimate the cash fows during the li±e o± the asset to estimate the discount rate to apply to these cash fows to get present value Market InefFciency : Markets are assumed to make mistakes in pricing assets across time , and are assumed to correct themselves over time, as new in±ormation comes out about assets.
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Aswath Damodaran 6 Discounted Cashfow Valuation: Basis For Approach where C± t is the expected cash fow in period t, r is the discount rate appropriate given the riskiness oF the cash fow and n is the liFe oF the asset. Proposition 1: For an asset to have value, the expected cash fows have to be positive some time over the li±e o± the asset. Proposition 2: Assets that generate cash fows early in their li±e will be worth more than assets that generate cash fows later; the latter may however have greater growth and higher cash fows to compensate.
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val2day09 - Advanced Valuation Aswath Damodaran...

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