MIT1_201JF08_lec02

MIT1_201JF08_lec02 - Introduction to Transportation Demand...

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Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis and Overview of Consumer Theory Moshe Ben-Akiva 1.201 / 11.545 / ESD.210 Transportation Systems Analysis: Demand & Economics Fall 2008
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Part One: Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis Outline I. Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis Choices Complexity Sample statistics Roles of demand models II. Overview of Consumer Theory 2
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Choices Impacting Transport Demand Decisions made by Organizations Firm locates in Boston or Waltham Firm invests in home offices, high speed connections Developer builds in downtown or suburbs Decisions made by Individual/Households Live in mixed use area in Boston or in residential suburb Do not work or work (and where to work) Own a car or a bike Own an in-vehicle navigation system Work Monday-Friday 9-5 or work evenings and weekends Daily activity and travel choices: what, where, when, for how long, in what order, by which mode and route, using what telecommunications 3
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Complexity of Transport Demand Valued as input to other activities (derived demand) Encompasses many interrelated decisions – Very long-term to very short-term Large number of distinct services differentiated by location and time Demographics & socioeconomic matter Sensitivity to service quality Supply and demand interact via congestion Complexity and Variety wide assortment of models to analyze transportation users’ behavior. 4
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Mode Share Statistics Transit Shares for Work Trips in Selected U.S. Cities City Year Transit Mode Share (%) Boston, MA 1990 10.64 2000 9.03 Chicago, IL 1990 13.66 2000 11.49 New York, NY 1990 26.57 2000 24.90 Houston, TX 1990 3.78 2000 3.28 Phoenix, AZ 1990 2.13 2000 2.02 5 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000
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Travel Expenditures The average generalized cost (money and time) per person in developed countries is very stable. % of Income Spent on Travel 5% 10% 15% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600 Time Spent on Travel 14% ~1.1 hrs Motorization Rate (Cars/1000 Capita) 6 Source: Schäfer A., 1998, “The Global Demand for Motorized Mobility”, Transportation Research A, 32(6): 455-477.
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Transport Demand Elasticities Elasticity: % change in demand resulting from 1% change in an attribute Derived from demand models: Price In-vehicle time Work Trips (San Francisco) Auto Bus Rail -0.47 -0.58 -0.86 -0.22 -0.60 -0.60 Price Travel time Vacation Trips (U.S.) Auto Bus Rail Air -0.45 -0.69 -1.20 -0.38 -0.39 -2.11 -1.58 -0.43 Source: Schäfer A., 1998, “The Global Demand for Motorized Mobility”, Transportation Research A, 32(6): 455-477. 7
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Value of Time The monetary value of a unit of time for a user. Work Trips (San Francisco) Auto Bus In-vehicle time 140 76 Percentage of Walk access time 273 after tax wage Transfer wait time 195 Vacation Trips (U.S.) Auto Bus Rail Air Percentage of Total travel time 6 79-87 54-69 149 pretax wage Freight Rail Truck Percentage of shipment Total transit time 6-21 8-18 value per day Source: Jose Gómez-Ibañez, William B. Tye, and Clifford Winston, editors, Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy, 8 page 42. Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C., 1999.
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Role of Demand Models
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