MIT1_201JF08_lec02

MIT1_201JF08_lec02 - Introduction to Transportation Demand...

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Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis and Overview of Consumer Theory Moshe Ben-Akiva 1.201 / 11.545 / ESD.210 Transportation Systems Analysis: Demand & Economics Fall 2008
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Part One: Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis Outline I. Introduction to Transportation Demand Analysis Choices Complexity Sample statistics Roles of demand models II. Overview of Consumer Theory 2
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Choices Impacting Transport Demand Decisions made by Organizations – Firm locates in Boston or Waltham – Firm invests in home offices, high speed connections – Developer builds in downtown or suburbs Decisions made by Individual/Households – Live in mixed use area in Boston or in residential suburb – Do not work or work (and where to work) – Own a car or a bike – Own an in-vehicle navigation system – Work Monday-Friday 9-5 or work evenings and weekends – Daily activity and travel choices: what, where, when, for how long, in what order, by which mode and route, using what telecommunications 3
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Complexity of Transport Demand Valued as input to other activities (derived demand) Encompasses many interrelated decisions – Very long-term to very short-term Large number of distinct services differentiated by location and time Demographics & socioeconomic matter Sensitivity to service quality Supply and demand interact via congestion Complexity and Variety wide assortment of models to analyze transportation users’ behavior. 4
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Mode Share Statistics Transit Shares for Work Trips in Selected U.S. Cities City Year Transit Mode Share (%) Boston, MA 1990 10.64 2000 9.03 Chicago, IL 1990 13.66 2000 11.49 New York, NY 1990 26.57 2000 24.90 Houston, TX 1990 3.78 2000 3.28 Phoenix, AZ 1990 2.13 2000 2.02 5 Source: US Census, 1990, 2000
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Travel Expenditures The average generalized cost (money and time) per person in developed countries is very stable. % of In co me Sp en t on Tr av el 5% 10% 15% 20% 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ti el 14% ~1.1 hrs Motorization Rate (Cars/1000 Capita) 6 Source: Schäfer A., 1998, “The Global Demand for Motorized Mobility”, Transportation Research A, 32(6): 455-477.
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Transport Demand Elasticities Elasticity: % change in demand resulting from 1% change in an attribute Derived from demand models: Price In-vehicle time Work Trips (San Francisco) Auto Bus Rail -0.47 -0.58 -0.86 -0.22 -0.60 -0.60 Price Travel time Vacation Trips (U.S.) Auto Bus Rail Air -0.45 -0.69 -1.20 -0.38 -0.39 -2.11 -1.58 -0.43 Source: Schäfer A., 1998, “The Global Demand for Motorized Mobility”, Transportation Research A, 32(6): 455-477. 7
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Value of Time The monetary value of a unit of time for a user. Work Trips
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MIT1_201JF08_lec02 - Introduction to Transportation Demand...

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