MIT1_201JF08_lec05

MIT1_201JF08_lec05 - Travel Demand Modeling Moshe Ben-Akiva...

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Travel Demand Modeling Moshe Ben-Akiva 1.201 / 11.545 / ESD.210 Transportation Systems Analysis: Demand & Economics Fall 2008
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Review Discrete Choice Framework – A decision maker n selects one and only one alternative i from a choice set C n = {1 ,…,J n } Random Utility Model where U in = V in (attributes of i , characteristics of n , β ) + ε in Discrete Choice Models – Multinomial Logit – Nested Logit Correlated Alternatives Multidimensional Choice Next… Travel Demand Modeling 2
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Outline Introduction Approaches – Trip – Tour – Activity Emerging Approaches 3
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Long Term Choices Urban Development Firm location and relocation decisions Firm investment in information technology Mobility and Lifestyle Decisions Labor force participation Workplace location Housing Automobile ownership Information technology ownership and access Activity program 4
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Activity and Travel Pattern Choices Activity sequence and duration Priorities for activities Tour formation Telecommunications options Access travel information – Traffic conditions – Route guidance – Parking availability – Public transportation schedules Reschedule activities Revise travel plans 5
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Modeling Framework Land Use and Economic Development Transportation System Performance Household & Individual Behavior Lifestyle and Mobility Decisions Activity and Travel Scheduling Implementation and Rescheduling Long Term Short Term 6
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The Fundamental Modeling Problem Adequately represent a decision process that has an inordinate number of feasible outcomes in many dimensions Example - Activity Schedule N um ber of activities 10 10 Sequence Tim ing Location M ode R oute Total Num ber of Activity Schedule Alternatives 10 per activity 1000 per activity 5 per activity 10 per activity 10! 100 10,000 50 100 10 17 Simplify Achieve valid results 7
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Simplifying the Problem Discrete time intervals Individuals defined by socioeconomic variables Divide space into zones Categories of activities Depiction of travel patterns trips, tours, activity schedules 8
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Approaches to Modeling Travel Trip-based Integrated trip-based Tour-based Activity schedule 9
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Representing Activity/Travel Behavior Schedule Tours Trips Space D S H Space Space H D S H D S H H H H D S H W W W W H H H Time Time Time H: Home W: Work S: Shop D: Dinner out 10
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Trip Purpose Home-based work (HBW) Home-based shop (HBS) Home-based other (HBO) Non-home-based (NHB) Behavioral Steps 1. Trip Generation (Frequency) 2. Trip Distribution (Destination) 3. Modal Split (Mode) 4. Assignment (Route) 11
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This note was uploaded on 12/04/2011 for the course ESD 1.210j taught by Professor Mosheben-akiva during the Fall '08 term at MIT.

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MIT1_201JF08_lec05 - Travel Demand Modeling Moshe Ben-Akiva...

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