MIT1_201JF08_lec24

MIT1_201JF08_lec24 - The Developing World? Urban Passenger...

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Unformatted text preview: The Developing World? Urban Passenger Mobility Chris Zegras 2 December 2008 1.201 Objective and Content h Provide a brief, somewhat anecdotal, survey of developing country urban mobility reality 1. Trends and Forces 2. A Developing World? 3. Developing Country Challenges and Opportunities: 5 Key Areas Motorization, motorized 2-wheelers, public transportation, land management, institutions 2 1 Developing World Urban Transportation: Trends in Perspective By 2030 ~2 billion new residents X ~3,000 vkm/person/year = ~6 trillion additional vehicle kms/yr = ~600 billion additional liters of gasoline/yr or ~1.9 billion tonnes of GHG yearly 3 Some Relevant Forces Income growth Accessibility is a superior good Urban decentralization (i.e., suburbanization) Increasing labor force participation Declining household size 4 2 In other words Urbanization (Urban population growth) + Decentralization (Urban outgrowth, sprawl) + Income Growth = More people making more trips over greater distances 5 What do we mean by developing world? Can (should) we generalize? What is different? What is the same? Sources of variation? 6 3 7 8 Range of Developing World Cities Source: Various, see WBCSD, Table A-1. Household Car Ownership Hyodo et al, 2005. 4 10 Non-motorized transport cultures? 6 10 12 24 24 24 22 28 29 21 18 27 4 4 4 10 12 9 10 20 28 2 1 1.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 U S C a n a d a E n g l a n d F r a n c e I t a l y S w i t z e r l a n d G e r m a n y A u s t r i a S w e d e n D e n m a r k H o l l a n d S a n t i a g o Percent of AllTrips Bike Walk Pucher & Dijkstra, 2003; Santiago derived from SECTRA, 2002. 9 Chilean Cities: Vehicle Ownership & Mode Shares 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% C u r ic o C o p ia p o P u n t a A r e n a s V a ld iv ia P u e r t o M o n t T a l c a C h il a n A r ic a I q u iq u e T e m u c o R a n c a g u a A n t o f a g a s t a C o q u im b o- L a S e r e n a C o n c e p c i o n V a lp a r a i s o- V in a d e l M a r S a n t ia g o ( 1 9 9 1 ) S a n t ia g o ( 2 1 ) Other Metro/Train Bike Colectivo Bus Auto Walk % Households With No Motor Vehicle 5 11 Edad en Aos PorcentajedeViajes Bicicleta Caminata 7 5 4 6 17 23 39 48 12 13 14 19 24 47 28 27 29 44 10 9 11 7 30 19 22 25 24 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.3 1.7 1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 16-24 25-39 40-64 >65 18-44 45-64 65-74 >75 18-24 25-39 40-64 65-74 >75 <15 16-24 25-39 40-64 65+ Bike Walk Percent of All Trips Age in Years USA Germany Netherlands Santiago Non-Motorized Urban Trips by Age Category Pucher & Dijkstra, 2003; Santiago derived from SECTRA, 2002. 12 Gender Again, significant variation by culture Generally, women have less access to private vehicles ( all else equal ) Womens travel habits more often than mens related to household maintenance not conducive to convenient public transport itineraries....
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MIT1_201JF08_lec24 - The Developing World? Urban Passenger...

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