slide1-probability

slide1-probability - Introduction to Probability Professor...

This preview shows pages 1–9. Sign up to view the full content.

Introduction to Probability Professor Erkut Ozbay Economics 300

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
1 ) Which of the following is more likely to be a Powerball winner? A) 32 11 5 24 18 3 B) 1 2 3 4 5 6 2) Here are the results of 9 coin flips: HHHHHHHHH What is the most likely outcome for the 10 th coin? 3) Why is a royal flush in spades the highest hand in poker? (10, Jack, Queen, King and Ace, all in spades)
Definition of Probability The probability that an event A will occur is written as P(A) and is read “the probability of A”. Three Different Types of Probability : 1. Theoretical 2. Empirical 3. Subjective

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
Vocabulary of Probability Theory Experiment - anything that produces an outcome Examples: flipping a coin, rolling a die Outcome - a particular result of an experiment Examples: coin lands heads, die roll is 5 Sample space - set of all possible outcomes of an experiment Examples: S = {Heads, Tails} S= {1,2,3,4,5,6} Event - an outcome or a set of outcomes that are of interest to the experimenter
Probability Rules for Equally Likely Events In S where outcomes are equally likely, then the probability of event A, P(A) is P(A) = Number of ways that A can occur Total # of possible outcomes Approach is called Classical Theoretical Probability = N n A

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
A Simple Experiment Suppose we were to roll a die: What is the sample space? S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Event 3 = die lands on 3, P(3) = 1/6 Event Even = die lands on even number, P(Even) = 3/6 = 1/2
Another Simple Experiment Selecting a card from a deck of cards Event Q = the Queen of Hearts is selected, P( Q ) = 1/52 Event Q = a Queen is selected, P(Q) = 4/52 = 1/13 Event = a Heart is selected, P( ) = 13/52 Event KQJ = a face card is selected, P(KQJ) = 12/52 = 3/13

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
Rules about Probabilities 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, the probability of an event must be a number between 0 and 1, inclusive P(S) = 1, the probability of the entire sample space must be equal to 1 If an event must happen, P(A) = 1 If an event is impossible, P(A) = 0
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

Page1 / 27

slide1-probability - Introduction to Probability Professor...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 9. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document
Ask a homework question - tutors are online