mankiw7e-chap13

mankiw7e-chap13 - 13 Aggregate Supply and the Short-run...

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1 Aggregate Supply and the Short-run Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment 13 In this chapter, you will learn… three models of aggregate supply in which output depends positively on the price level in the short run (only 2 presented in the book) about the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment known as the Phillips curve Three models of aggregate supply 1. The sticky-wage model 2. The imperfect-information model 3. The sticky-price model All three models imply: ( ) e Y Y P P natural rate of output a positive parameter the expected price level the actual price level agg. output
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2 Summary & implications Y P LRAS Y SRAS ( ) e Y Y P P e P P e P P e P P The sticky-wage model Assumes that firms and workers negotiate contracts and fix the nominal wage before they know what the price level will turn out to be. The nominal wage they set is the product of a target real wage and the expected price level: e W w P The sticky-wage model If it turns out that e P P e P P e P P then Unemployment and output are at their natural rates. Real wage is less than its target, so firms hire more workers and output rises above its natural rate. Real wage exceeds its target, so firms hire fewer workers and output falls below its natural rate.
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3 The sticky-wage model Implies that the real wage should be counter-cyclical , should move in the opposite direction as output during business cycles: In booms, when P typically rises, real wage should fall. In recessions, when P typically falls, real wage should rise. This prediction does not come true in the real world: The cyclical behavior of the real wage. The real wage is pro-cyclical Percentage change in real wage Percentage change in real GDP -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1974 1979 1991 1972 2004 2001 1998 1965 1984 1980 1982 1990
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4 Summary & implications Y P LRAS Y ( ) e Y Y P P e P P e P P e P P SRAS What shifts the curves? Change in P e Change in Y-bar ( ) e Y Y P P ( ) e Y Y P P Summary & implications Suppose a positive AD shock moves output above its natural rate (to Y2) and P above the level people had expected (to P2) Y P LRAS SRAS 1 SRAS equation: e Y Y P P ( ) 1 1 e P P AD 1 AD 2 2 e P 2 P 3 3 e P P Over time, P e rises, SRAS shifts up, and output returns to its natural rate.
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mankiw7e-chap13 - 13 Aggregate Supply and the Short-run...

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