Extra Problem 9 - Expert Judgment - Solution Key

Extra Problem 9 - Expert Judgment - Solution Key - EMGT 269...

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EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 1 SOLUTION EXTRA PROBLEM 9: EXPERT JUDGMENT A manufacturer needs to make an assessment of the size of the potential market for a new product. A market analyst provides the following evaluations for the number of items, N, that can be sold in the first year (in thousands): Pr(N 15) = 0.05 Ÿ Pr(N 45) = 0.05 Pr(N 30) = 0.50 Pr(N 20) = 0.25 Ÿ Pr(N 35) = 0.25 In addition, the market analyst provided the information that will be at least 5,000 sold, but definitely no more that 50,000. A. Draw an approximate continuous cumulative distribution function (CDF) using the straight line approximation for N. P r ( N 5 ) = 0 ; P r ( N 5 0 ) = 1 ŸŸ Pr(N 15) = 0.05; Pr(N 20) = 0.25;
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EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 2 Pr(N 30) = 0.50 Pr(N 30) = 0.50 Í Ÿ Pr(N 35) = 0.25 Pr(N 35) = 0.75 Ÿ Pr(N 45) = 0.05 Pr(N 45) = 0.95 Ÿ 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 n Pr(N n)
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EMGT 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Instructor: Dr. J. R. van Dorp 3 B. Construct a three-point approximation to this distribution with the extended Pearson-Tukey method. Estimate the expected demand with this approximation. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
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Extra Problem 9 - Expert Judgment - Solution Key - EMGT 269...

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