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Solutions Specific Questions Chapter 8

# Solutions Specific Questions Chapter 8 - EMSE 269 Elements...

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EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Solution by Dr. J.Rene van Dorp 1 Solution Question 8.18 Assess the probability that you will be hospitalized for more than one day during the upcoming year. T<ÐL9=:3>+6Ñ œ T<ÐL9=:3>+6lE--3./8>ÑT<ÐE--3./8>Ñ  T<ÐL9=:3>+6lR9 E--3./8>ÑT<ÐR9 E--3./8>Ñ I would asses: (I drive a motorcycle!) T<ÐL9=:3>+6lE--3./8>Ñ œ " When I assess: I only need to consider my T<ÐL9=:3>+6lR9 E--3./8>Ñ general health condition and possibly other external events, for example getting injured while exercising. T<ÐE--3./8>Ñ : This could be assessed from accident data using a similar driver profile as mine (possibly age dependent). T<ÐR9 E--3./8>Ñ œ "  T<ÐE--3./8>Ñ

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EMSE 269 - Elements of Problem Solving and Decision Making Solution by Dr. J.Rene van Dorp 2 Solution Question 8.20 After observing a long run of red on a roulette wheel, many gamblers believe that black is bound to occur. Such a belief is often called Gambler's Fallacy because the roulette wheel has no memory. Which probability assessment heuristic is at work in the gambler's fallacy? Explain
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Solutions Specific Questions Chapter 8 - EMSE 269 Elements...

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