Chapter4-inclass

Chapter4-inclass - Module 4 Modeling Decisions: MAKING...

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1 Module 4 Modeling Decisions: MAKING CHOICES Topics: Creating case study decision tree Solving a decision tree Risk profiles Dominance of alternatives Attributes and scales Using multiple objectives
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2 Introduction Module 3: Structure values and objectives Identify performance measures Structure decision tree and influence diagram models Module 4: Solve decision trees Approach for multiple objectives Module 4 software tutorial
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3 Making Choices Learning Objectives Create decision tree from case study Solve a decision tree Expected value preference criterion Create and interpret Risk profiles Cumulative risk profiles Concept of dominance Definition and identification Decision problem simplification
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4 Making Choices Learning Objectives Develop Constructed attributes Constructed scales Formulate multiple objectives problems Common scales Trade–off weights Composite consequences
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5 Making Choices Analysis of structured problems graphing calculating examining results
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6 “Texaco versus Pennzoil” Pennzoil and Getty Oil agreed to a merger Texaco made better offer to Getty Getty reneged on Pennzoil and sold to Texaco Pennzoil sued Texaco for interference Pennzoil won and was awarded the $11.1 billion
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7 “Texaco versus Pennzoil” Texaco appealed; award reduced to $10.3 billion Texaco threatened bankruptcy if Pennzoil filed liens Texaco also threatened to take case to Supreme Court
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8 “Texaco versus Pennzoil” Texaco offered to settle out of court by paying Pennzoil $2 billion Pennzoil believed fair settlement between $3 and $5 billion
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Chapter4-inclass - Module 4 Modeling Decisions: MAKING...

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