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# Chapter8-class - Chapter 8 Subjective Probability 1 Chapter 8 Subjective Probability Learning Objectives Uncertainty and public policy Subjective

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1 Chapter 8 Subjective Probability

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2 Chapter 8, Subjective Probability Learning Objectives: Uncertainty and public policy Subjective probability-assessment technique Heuristics and Biases Experts and Probability Assessment
3 Chapter 8,Subjective Probability Subjective assessments of uncertainty are an important element of decision analysis. In modern decision analysis subjective judgments of uncertainty can be made in terms of probability. Need to develop a approach to measure the uncertainty that we feel

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4 Uncertainty and Public Policy Fruit Frost, Farmers occasionally must decide whether to protect a crop from potentially damaging frost. Decision must be made in terms of probability Earthquake Prediction, Geologists are beginning to develop ways to assess the probability of major earthquakes.
5 Uncertainty and Public Policy Environment Impact Statements Require assessments of the risks assessments of the risks associated with proposed projects. Projects involving pesticides and herbicides, the chances of cancer and other health risks are assessed.

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6 Uncertainty and Public Policy Public Policy and Scientific Research
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## This note was uploaded on 12/04/2011 for the course BUSINESS 500 taught by Professor John during the Spring '11 term at Kansas.

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Chapter8-class - Chapter 8 Subjective Probability 1 Chapter 8 Subjective Probability Learning Objectives Uncertainty and public policy Subjective

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