Days 18 & 19

Days 18 & 19 - Be/j;(} Po.r-t.JJr J;3rrn5...

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Unformatted text preview: Be/j;(} Po.r-t.JJr J;3rrn5 CQ((!'~o:fvr d o.j \~J~ Not-ebook p p.37-Jj) ~'i?andorYJ 5O..YYJpJe... -de...f:,ne C L popU/Q-fzoY} % en h a.ve CL p lan + 0 g et: a... s axy,p l e b er i 'S ~ l.(.Q 11.!:J I / 1<' e I '-1 -to b e s e,} e~-t-ed a.. n d ---t:::h ex i 5 n ot: V'b i a s e d. in r e.Cj o--rct -1:::0 -t:h ~ ,c:a. ram ei:s::..r: s u...cJ, +ha..-c e a..c..h r Y1 e r Y\ ~ £ xGtntples ( j) 19310 t-itera..Y-.~ : Dijest T ribL<.ne. @ 19lj~ C. h5 ® ::Dra..+-t k oti:e.r.j I q 70 ., P o...ralYletric- \is p Nc:J"'n 'Po..ro..rn.e:-b-i<2.­ o-P L evels d )a.:;I-CL h CA.. r n e/r i c.al2. c' r -cd::f a 0 y - l n i ::e rvo..L <2a..t~ori~o..Q: h Oh'll n e-Q C Jr o rd uno....L , / X \. \-hs+o~y-o..YY\- ~l.A..id~ine.s; 38 -h-~iA..C?'I~ h 's/v3¥"QI'YJ p. d.cd-o... ­ - /2 }O g - ­ {p ­ - 'f ­ - - :2 - ­• . 1, I • : 10,5 3 0S , /0..£ ~os ~oS 7 0S <6DS 9 0S l OO.S Saturday, February 24,2007 11 :10:13 PM Page 1 o f 1 Printed by: Evelyn Bailey Title: Fwd: S tories. . . : L eamLink Thur sdav. F rom : Su bject: 9 Sp.nt~mhor 01, 2005 9:26:57 PM E velyn Bailey F wd: Stories . . . T o: Cc: Stories: Examples where samples were not random : (1) 1936 Literary Digest predicted Alf Landon to be president when Roosevelt won by a landslide 1 0 million surveys were sent to a group that, in general , had a higher income than the general public . with a 1/4 return rate (voluntary response) The surveys were sent to those people who subscnbed to the magazine . In the past the predictions had been on target; however, because socioeconomic levels of the voters had a lot to d o with voting in this election . the prediction was way off Roosevelt advocated the N ew Deal that w as a ttractive to lower Income people . The Literary Digest "lost face " and later went out o f b usiness . - (2) In 1948, the Chicago Tribune headline announced , "Dewey W ins" w hen Truman won the Presidential election Three major polls missed the prediction . Gallup c ame c losest with 49.5% Dewey, 4 4 .5% Truman , 5.5% other. and .5% undecided . Problems were : (1) that the prediction came 2 weeks In a dvance o f the election with 15% announcing, undecided . It was assumed that the 15% undecided would split in the same proportions as those who had decided and (2) sample had a greater proportion o f h igher income than the general voting public. How do you get in touch with the general public? R emember t hat not everyone had a telephone in 1948 and there was no electronic communication . (The .5% undecided was Gallop's error factor .) ( 3) 1 970 D raft where more people In D ecember and N ovember had lower draft numbers than should have occurred by chance Reason was that the drums were not sufficiently mixed . . drum one had Jan Feb tvlarch etc drum two had 366 365 . etc. After mixing . which was not sufficient and when paired up the end o f the year was paired more often with the lower numbers while the begln'llng o f the year dates were paired more often with higher numbers . Those with numbers 49 a rd b elow were a most 1000A assured o f being drafted (depending on how many signed up In their town) y3 ~~ S~ 3~ Sd L\~ LoS to ~ 3 \ ;;;Z ~ y ~ to 0 Y d.. Y ~ ~ 1 3 0 0~ ;;zcr 3 S ~o Llo L ea..f ~~I 9' 0 t - :20-5 3 ~ :L~ ~o Cf d 5 ~ :;;L b /" <7.S Ca. ,n pt.AJt In o rder meCArl = 41.[, 7 = l..j ~ = 4~ rn eat l~ YY\od.e (;(1­ sid. d eN: I i.f 71Rf.r; 0 3 - Q l ; 3 3 -l-o ;).q.;­ ra.Y\~e : J..(J 1---0 ~ Z I - :n 'IStr~ b lA..-n~5 ~ V""-eo n I I 1 hO m ode. C&rlJAal T~~~ m eo..n - pa'\CA..vY\eh-l'c....) 'n a t m e...cl'l ( )vvI - 0 -Fa \ S nl.A.vy\vr(~oi do.:t-Q \< eux.&. r d '\ (\ o.Q dod:-o...) s l< e C,.;.J-e d.. .:s I n c..e.. \ 'oblA.s-t -to e XtrerYles L oG..J ,aY\'je : DR y "y\ 'l U se : 0 3 +0 Q I OJ + 0 0 3 d d. \ e... S O CJo e a..n w 'l~ s +d . de-v. - po..,("CA.Y"'-e-h-i ~ v Y\ e d l O Y"\ w i-f::-h a. i vod:ev-3l.<.DI'i:i )e... r 0. n nonpo..t'"()..Y'f\e+ri c... r 'r) 3e. N otebook p. 3 9 .. T ests +Or 'horrno...Li~ : V "\eedecl t o d ekrn,'ne- if' - t:i,e u s e o f po.. ro..YY\e....+rl c.. s -ta.V's-b 'c.a.L -t es-c.:s o ..re OfP ,0 p \" 'oj:-e .. T e.S-t5 ~, \\oLL-tL i eK}I : o u--t1i e r ') s .fuu. n r e n 'lOV e . l-t be -to r e. p ' fO ce~cQ i i?e..+i5u..v-~ 5 ; r eVlSt1: -F I f ur 0 ..n Y \oryY1Q r:5 '. x) l+ i~ d,l n~c.esSo..nj I --t.es-!:.s • F l r s i;- st-e p in do1-o... _o..Y',o..l~s i ~ i s -l::o c...h o.'c..~i: e -ri z e ,~ou..y- ola: 0.... . . . L.c; )--w-t. ~ have. ? pe ola.ta-.. d 0 ~ 01.<.. ! Nume--r,"c.oJ o . c.o..+e:l0ric.C<.L -L Y \ LA.. Y Yt e K" i ~o.l' i s -&h e d l s-l::r-( ­ b1.<. -b CJY1 <?fP ro;<. i yY\ o:!:~l j n o rrY\o.LLl..( d 'j s -t--r-i b cd e Cl ? .J + Hnj o~iers o . \....\ 0 \ ~\ a.. ~ LV - :iT \ \0 7±t )) U..) C5-'\ \..( ~ 1 c.. ...
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This note was uploaded on 12/05/2011 for the course MATH 207 taught by Professor Bailey during the Spring '11 term at Emory.

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