2a - Workshop: Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps Urban...

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Workshop: Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps … Urban Transportation Planning MIT Course 1.252j/11.540j Fall 2006 Mikel Murga, MIT Lecturer and Research Associate
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Scope ± Introduction from Meyer and Miller ± Forecasting … and Scenarios ± Demographics as an example ± Communication tools ± Working with Mindmaps Workshop 1 2
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Introduction from Meyer and Miller … 1. The world moves into the future as a result of decisions (or the lack of decisions), not as result of plans 2. All decisions involve the evaluation of alternative images of the future , and the selection of the most highly valued of feasible alternatives 3. Evaluation and decisions are influenced by the degree of uncertainty associated with expected consequences 4. The products of planning should be designed to increase the chance of making better decisions 5. The result of planning is some form of communication with decision makers Chapter 1, pages 2-3 Workshop 1 3
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Models and Forecasting… Forecasting ± Forecasting: Scenarios ± Short term extrapolation:The future on the basis of the past ± Applicable to slow incremental change ± We tend to believe that today’s status quo will continue for ever uncertainty predictability ± We often ignore … Time into the future Workshop 1 4
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 …And Scenarios ± A conceptual description of the future based on cause and effect ± Invent and analyze several stories of equally plausible futures to bring forward surprises and unexpected leaps of understanding ± Goal is not to create a future, nor to choose the most probable one, but to make strategic decisions that will be sound (or robust) under all plausible futures Workshop 1 5
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Scenarios "Scenarios transform information into perceptions. .. It is a creative experience that generates an 'Aha!' . .. and leads to strategic insights beyond the mind's previous reach." Pierre Wack GBN Workshop 1 6
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Reading on Scenarios ± “The Art of the Long View” by Peter Schwartz ± “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation” by Kees van der Heijden Both authors work for the Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and come from the Shell Planning Group Workshop 1 7
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Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2006 Scenarios: Why? ± History is a continuum of pattern breaks
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2a - Workshop: Scenarios, Communication, Mindmaps Urban...

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