Week5a - The 4-Step Demand Model Urban Transportation...

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The 4-Step Demand Model Urban Transportation Planning MIT Course 1.252j/11.380j Fall 2002 Mikel Murga, MIT Research Associate October 4 , 2002
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2 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 Quantitative Methods ! The 4-Step Model ! Critique ! Integration of the analytical chain ! New Trends
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3 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Road flows in the Basque Country for a particular scenario
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4 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Road flows in the Basque Country for a particular scenario
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5 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Road flows in the Basque Country for a particular scenario
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6 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model View in downtown Bilbao: volumes, I/C, speeds…
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7 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Viajes en TP por familia por sección censal 4 2 0.4 BILBOBUS METRO Otros Modal share among Subway, Buses and chartered buses
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8 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " Sube-Baja 2500 1250 625 suben bajan Línea 48 5000 2500 1250 On-off counts per bus stop for all routes
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9 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Viajeros por Ejes Viarios en BilboBus 15000 7500 1 Aggregated bus flows along corridors
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10 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Viajeros entre Distritos 5000 2500 1250 Nota: El Distrito 5 se ha dividido en dos (5 y 9) para separar el Casco Viejo de barrios más periféricos como San Adrián y La Peña 1 8 2 6 3 4 7 9 5 The Overall View: A simplified O-D matrix
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11 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model In a nutshell: every settlement, every dwelling, job center, road, no of lanes, posted speeds, signals, transit lines, stops, headways, commercial speeds… " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " Sube-Baja 2500 1250 625 suben bajan Línea 48 5000 2500 1250
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12 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 4-Step Planning Model Land-Use Scenarios: eg. New developments Socio-economic data Generation Distribution Modal Split Assignment Transport Scenarios: eg. New transit line Policy Scenarios: eg. New parking scheme Started in the 50´s to build the Interstate Then, predict and accommodate The basic approach remains unchanged today
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13 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 Why planning models are important? ! Forecasts numbers can be easily used to kill a project or to keep it alive, even if it has no real merits ! Models often used as “black boxes” ! They can be easily manipulated to produce results fitting client’s wishes ! As few post-mortems are conducted, many are happy to predict the future Land-Use Scenarios: eg. New developments Socio-economic data Generation Distribution Modal Split Assignment Transport Scenarios: eg. New transit line Policy Scenarios: eg. New parking scheme
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14 Urban Transportation Planning – Fall 2002 Day 5 Use of Planning models !
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Week5a - The 4-Step Demand Model Urban Transportation...

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