17 - Chapter8-Travel Forecasting

17 - Chapter8-Travel Forecasting - Destination Mode and...

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Destination, Mode, and Route Choice TTE 4004 11/14/11
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Recap – 4 Step Travel Forecasting 1. Trip Generation How many trips? 2. Trip Distribution Where are trips going to/from? 3. Mode Split Which mode for these trips? 4. Network Assignment Which route will the traveler choose?
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Recap – Trip Generation Purpose: To develop an expression that predicts exactly when a trip is to be made Grouped by: Household – trips per household Type – work, shopping, social Time – only concerned with peak hour New Purpose: To develop and expression to predict how many trips of a certain type will be made during the peak hour by a given household
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Recap – Trip Generation Poisson regression trip generation models ( 29 ! i i T i i i e P T T λ - = (Eq. 8.2) T i  = number of vehicle-based trips of a given type (shopping or social/ recreational)  made in some specified time period by household  i , P ( T i ) = probability of household  i  making exactly  T i  trips  λ i  = Poisson parameter for household  i , which is equal to household  ’s expected  number of vehicle-based trips in some specified time period,  E [ T i ]. i i e λ= BZ (Eq. 8.3) B  = vector of estimable coefficients, Z i  = vector of household characteristics determining trip generation
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Destination / Mode Choice After the number of trips generated is
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This note was uploaded on 12/07/2011 for the course TTE 4004 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at University of Florida.

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17 - Chapter8-Travel Forecasting - Destination Mode and...

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