Assignment 4 Fall 2011

Assignment 4 Fall 2011 - University of Massachusetts...

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University of Massachusetts Department of Resource Economics RESEC 797A Fall 2011 Assignment 4 SINGLE (or SIMPLE) EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING 1. For Variable 1 and Variable 2 use single exponential smoothing . See the instructions below on how to find the optimal smoothing parameter. Calculate the RMSE for one-step-ahead forecasts both within-sample and post-sample. Calculate the RMSE for four-steps-ahead forecasts for the post-sample only. 2. Compare the single exponential smoothing method with the naive no-change method for one- step-ahead forecasts both within-sample and post-sample. 3. Repeat Number 2 above for four-step-ahead forecasts for the post-sample only. Excel Spreadsheet Instructions Look at the third and fourth pages. The third page is a program called ESstarter. This is designed to show you how to find the optimal smoothing parameter in a spreadsheet framework. I provide instructions directly below. The fourth page brings ESstarter to a conclusion. The top half of page 4 shows you the different SSEs corresponding to different smoothing parameter values. The bottom half of page 4 provides formulas for all of the cells so that you can apply this framework to your own variables. Let’s begin with ESstarter. But note that column references are provided with the top table on page 4. My actual data are in Column C. I am reserving the last eight observations (in bold) for
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This note was uploaded on 12/08/2011 for the course ECON 797A taught by Professor Bernardmorzuch during the Fall '11 term at UMass (Amherst).

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Assignment 4 Fall 2011 - University of Massachusetts...

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