Chapter10slides - Biases in Probability Assessment 1...

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Biases in Probability Assessment 1
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Heuristics and biases People use simple mental strategies or heuristics to cope with difficult judgments These heuristics are often efficient ways of coping with complex problems, but. .. They can also lead to systematically biased judgments 2
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Three common heuristics 1. The availability heuristic 2. The representativeness heuristic 3. Anchoring and adjustment 3
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The availability heuristic People assess the probability of events by how easily these events can be brought to mind. e.g. how easily they can be recalled or imagined 4
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Biases resulting from the availability heuristic 1. Ease of recall may not be associated with probability 2. Easily imagined events are not necessarily more probable 3. Illusory correlation 5
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Who is generally considered to be the worst president? ? 6
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The representativeness heuristic Used where people have to judge the probability that: a) an object or person belongs to a particular category b) an event originates from a particular process The assessed probability is based on the extent to which the object, person or event appears to be representative of the category or process. 7
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What is the probability that object A belongs to class B? What is the probability that event A originates from process B? What is the probability that process R will generate event A? 8
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In answering such questions, people typically rely on the representativeness heuristic, in which probabilities are evaluated by the degree to which A is representative of B, that is, by the degree to which A resembles B. For
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This note was uploaded on 12/08/2011 for the course ENGINEERIN BURD taught by Professor Benni during the Fall '09 term at Uni. Reykjavik.

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Chapter10slides - Biases in Probability Assessment 1...

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