Chapter11slides(2) - Pointer 4 Assessment methods for...

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Methods for Eliciting Probabilities 1
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Preparing for probability assessment Motivating Structuring Conditioning 2
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Direct assessment methods Posing a direct question e.g. ‘What is the probability that the product will achieve break-even sales next month?’ Marking a point on a 0 to 1 scale 3
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The probability wheel
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Unformatted text preview: Pointer 4 Assessment methods for probability distributions The probability method Graph drawing 5 The method of relative heights 6 The method of relative heights (continued) 7 Assessing the validity of subjective probabilities 8 An event tree 9 A fault tree 10 Using a log-odds scale 11...
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Chapter11slides(2) - Pointer 4 Assessment methods for...

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