Chapter13slides - Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals...

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Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals 1
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Mathematical aggregation: The production manager’s model 2
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Mathematical aggregation: The accountant’s model 3
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Mathematical aggregation: The ‘average’ model 4
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Aggregating judgments in general Most studies suggest that equal weighting of individual judgments works as well as more complex methods Often, little is to be gained by averaging the estimates of more than 5 or 6 people 5
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Aggregating probability judgments 6
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Aggregating preference orderings: Condorcet’s paradox 7
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Arrow’s impossibility theorem: Four conditions Method must produce a transitive group preference order If every member prefers an option then so must the group Group choice between 2 options does not depend on preferences for any other option There is no dictator 8
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Aggregating values and utilities 9
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Measuring individuals’ strengths of preference on a common scale 10
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Unstructured group processes: Groupthink 11 the tendency of groups who have been working together for some time to make poor decisions - because social pressures to conform and avoid conflict lead to suppression of contradicting opinions
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Chapter13slides - Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals...

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