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Chapter16slides - Scenario Planning An Alternative Way of...

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Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty 1
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‘In times of rapid change, strategic failure is often caused by a crisis of perception (that is, the inability to see an emergent novel reality by being locked inside obsolete assumptions), particularly in large, well-run companies’ Pierre Wack 2
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‘I mistrust isolated trends ... In a period of rapid change, strategic planning based on straight-line trend extrapolation is inherently treacherous ... what is needed for planning is … multidimensional models that interrelate forces technological, social, political, even cultural, along with the economies.’ Alvin Toffler in The Adaptive Corporation (1985) 3
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Assumptions of scenario planning 4 1. Managers are not able to make valid assessments of probabilities of unique future events 2. Best guesses of the future may be wrong 3. Minority opinions should be allowed ‘airtime’
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What are scenarios?
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