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MSOM Class Examples
Forecasting
POM Answers for Forecast
LPD
Averaging
Naïve or LPD Method
Wrong
Month
Demands
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
Measure
Value
May
22
X
X
X
X
Error Measures
June
25
22
3
22
3
Bias (Mean Error)
23.25
July
21
25
4
23.5
2.5
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
23.25
August
24
21
3
22.67
1.33
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
542.75
September
23
24
1
23
0
Standard Error (denom=n2=2)
32.947
October
?
23
2.75
23
1.71
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
0.12
Forecast
On this series of data it is better to be more smooth instead of more responsive
next period
23
because the averaging method proved to have less of an error
Moving Average (N=2)
Wrong
Moving Average (N=3)
LPD
Averaging
Moving Average
n=2
Measure
Value
Measure
Value
Month
Demands
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
Error Measures
Error Measures
Worse so stop
May
22
X
X
X
X
X
X
Bias (Mean Error)
22.667
Bias (Mean Error)
23.5
June
25
22
3
22
3
22
3
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
22.667
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
23.5
July
21
25
4
23.5
2.5
23.5
2.5
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
515.333
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
552.5
August
24
21
3
22.67
1.33
23
1
Form. Exponential Smoothing
Standard Error (denom=n2=1)
39.319
Standard Error (denom=n2=0)
NA
September
23
24
1
23
0
22.5
0.5
F(T)=
F(t1)+
(S0)(error)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
0.061
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
0.035
October
?
23
2.75
23
1.71
23
1.75
22
0.3
Forecast
Forecast
22.3
next period
23.5
next period
22.667
Picking the best N  a larger N will make the answer smoother
You are using each number twice
POM w/ Linear Regression
0.1
Trend Progression
LPD
Averaging
Moving Average
n=2
ES
alp=.1
In all the book problems,
Measure
Value
Future Period
Forecast
Month
Demands
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
Forecast
Error
alpha, n, and the initial
Error Measures
6
23.3
May
22
X
X
X
X
X
X
22
X
forecast is given
Bias (Mean Error)
23
7
23.4
June
25
22
3
22
3
22
3
22
3
Need to adjust by the
MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
23
8
23.5
July
21
25
4
23.5
2.5
23.5
2.5
22.3
1.3
error you made
MSE (Mean Squared Error)
531
9
23.6
August
24
21
3
22.666667 1.333
23
1
22.17
1.83
Standard Error (denom=n2=3)
29.749
10
23.7
September
23
24
1
23
0
22.5
0.5
22.35
0.65
Wrong
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)
0.052
11
23.8
October
?
23
2.75
23
1.71
23
1.75
1.95
Regression line
12
23.9
Demand(y) = 22.7
13
24
+ .1 * Time(x)
14
24.1
Statistics
15
24.2
Correlation coefficient
0.1
16
24.3
Coefficient of determination (r^2)
0.01
17
24.4
18
24.5
19
24.6
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View Full DocumentPOM > Quality > x bar
POM Quality > Process Capability
Sample
Mean
Range
3 sigma (99.73%)
Xbar Chart
Range Chart
Parameter
Value
Results
Value
Sample
1
156.9
4.2
UCL (Upper control lim
156.5398
7.961
Upper tolerance limit
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 Spring '08
 levi

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