Class Examples- first 5 chapters

Class Examples- first 5 chapters - MSOM Class Examples...

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MSOM Class Examples Forecasting POM Answers for Forecast LPD Averaging Naïve or LPD Method Wrong Month Demands Forecast Error Forecast Error Measure Value May 22 X X X X Error Measures June 25 22 3 22 3 Bias (Mean Error) 23.25 July 21 25 4 23.5 2.5 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 23.25 August 24 21 3 22.67 1.33 MSE (Mean Squared Error) 542.75 September 23 24 1 23 0 Standard Error (denom=n-2=2) 32.947 October ? 23 2.75 23 1.71 MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 0.12 Forecast On this series of data it is better to be more smooth instead of more responsive next period 23 because the averaging method proved to have less of an error Moving Average (N=2) Wrong Moving Average (N=3) LPD Averaging Moving Average n=2 Measure Value Measure Value Month Demands Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error Error Measures Error Measures Worse so stop May 22 X X X X X X Bias (Mean Error) 22.667 Bias (Mean Error) 23.5 June 25 22 3 22 3 22 3 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 22.667 MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 23.5 July 21 25 4 23.5 2.5 23.5 2.5 MSE (Mean Squared Error) 515.333 MSE (Mean Squared Error) 552.5 August 24 21 3 22.67 1.33 23 1 Form. Exponential Smoothing Standard Error (denom=n-2=1) 39.319 Standard Error (denom=n-2=0) NA September 23 24 1 23 0 22.5 0.5 F(T)= F(t-1)+ (S0)(error) MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 0.061 MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 0.035 October ? 23 2.75 23 1.71 23 1.75 22 0.3 Forecast Forecast 22.3 next period 23.5 next period 22.667 Picking the best N - a larger N will make the answer smoother You are using each number twice POM w/ Linear Regression 0.1 Trend Progression LPD Averaging Moving Average n=2 ES alp=.1 In all the book problems, Measure Value Future Period Forecast Month Demands Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error Forecast Error alpha, n, and the initial Error Measures 6 23.3 May 22 X X X X X X 22 X forecast is given Bias (Mean Error) 23 7 23.4 June 25 22 3 22 3 22 3 22 3 Need to adjust by the MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) 23 8 23.5 July 21 25 4 23.5 2.5 23.5 2.5 22.3 1.3 error you made MSE (Mean Squared Error) 531 9 23.6 August 24 21 3 22.666667 1.333 23 1 22.17 1.83 Standard Error (denom=n-2=3) 29.749 10 23.7 September 23 24 1 23 0 22.5 0.5 22.35 0.65 Wrong MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) 0.052 11 23.8 October ? 23 2.75 23 1.71 23 1.75 1.95 Regression line 12 23.9 Demand(y) = 22.7 13 24 + .1 * Time(x) 14 24.1 Statistics 15 24.2 Correlation coefficient 0.1 16 24.3 Coefficient of determination (r^2) 0.01 17 24.4 18 24.5 19 24.6
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POM -> Quality -> x bar POM -Quality -> Process Capability Sample Mean Range 3 sigma (99.73%) X-bar Chart Range Chart Parameter Value Results Value Sample 1 156.9 4.2 UCL (Upper control lim 156.5398 7.961 Upper tolerance limit
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Class Examples- first 5 chapters - MSOM Class Examples...

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