IEOR 3658
Assignment #2
Probability
September 21, 2011
Prof. Mariana OlveraCravioto
Page 1 of 2
Assignment #2
– due September 28th, 2011
1. You have 3 coins in your pocket that are undistinguishable to the touch; two of them are
normal coins, the other one has “heads” on both sides. Suppose you take a coin out of your
pocket at random, toss it, and obtain a “head”. What is the probability that the coin you
tossed is the doubleheaded one?
2. Three urns are ﬁlled with a mixture of green and white balls that are undistinguishable to
the touch, as follows:
urn no. 1:
three green balls,
nine white balls;
urn no. 2:
four green balls,
eight white balls;
urn no. 3:
six green balls,
six white balls.
By a suitable procedure that does not favor any one urn, the experimenter chooses one of the
urns. Then she blindly picks a ball from the chosen urn.
(a) What is the probability that the ball obtained in this manner is green?
(b) If a green ball is picked, what is the probability that it came from urn no. 1?
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 Fall '08
 Olvera
 Conditional Probability, Probability, Probability theory, Dice, white balls

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