IEOR 3658
Assignment #6
Probability
October 19, 2011
Prof. Mariana OlveraCravioto
Page 1 of 2
Assignment #6
– due October 26th, 2011
1.
A Cure for the Common Cold.
The number of times that an individual contracts a
cold in a given year is a Poisson random variable with parameter
λ
= 5.
Suppose a new
wonder drug (based on large quantities of vitamin C) that has just been marketed reduces
the Poisson parameter to
λ
= 3 for 75 percent of the population. For the other 25 percent of
the population, the drug has no effect on colds. If an individual tries the drug for a year and
has 2 colds in that time, what is the probability that the drug is beneficial to that individual?
2. John has a can of seeds with no label. He is sure that they are either of plant type A or of
type B, not both. John has assigned a probability of
P
(
A
) =
P
(
B
) = 0
.
5, where
A
is the
event that the seeds are of type A and
B
the event that the seeds are of type B. We know
that each plant grown from seeds A will have white flowers with probability 0.25, while plants
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 Fall '08
 Olvera
 Probability, Probability theory

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