Topic 12 (1) - Topic 12 Demand Forecasting in POM...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–9. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Topic 12 Demand Forecasting in POM
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
FORECASTING 1. Forecasting vs. Prediction: Forecasting: Estimating Future by Casting Forward Past Data. Prediction: Estimating Future based on Subjective Considerations other than just Past Data. 2. Three Levels of Forecasting in Operations Management: Long Range Forecasting for Aggregate Demand. Intermediate Range Forecasting for Product Groups. Short Range Forecasting for Individual Item. 3. Forecasting Objectives: Forecasting in POM: Item Demand (Workload for Capacity Planning) Forecasting in Finance: Dollars Revenue (Cash Flow Requirement) Topic 12 - 2
Background image of page 2
Forecasting in Marketing: Unit of Sales (Selling Capability) Topic 12 - 3
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Forecasting in Operations Forecast for operations Time horizon MGT level Product & Process design Long range Top Capacity Requirement Planning Long/ Intermediate Top / middle Aggregate Production Planning Intermediate Middle Production Scheduling Short Low Impact of Inaccurate Demand Forecasting: (Production Planning based on Demand Forecasting) 1. If Forecasting is consistently higher than Actual Demand: 2. If Forecasting is consistently lower than Actual Demand: Topic 12 - 4
Background image of page 4
Forecasting Systems Topic 12 - 5
Background image of page 5

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Forecasting Techniques Qualitative Approach: 1. Delphi Methods: (Expert's Subjective Ratings) 2. Marketing Research and Analysis: (Customer Survey) 3. Historical Analogy: (Knowledge of Similar Products) 4. ................... Quantitative Approach: (Two General Techniques) A: Time Series Analysis: 1. Simple Moving Average 2. Weighted Moving Average 3. Exponential Smoothing 4. . ................ B: Causal Relationship Models: 1. Regression Analysis 2. Econometric Models 3. . ............... Topic 12 - 6
Background image of page 6
Selection of Forecasting Techniques Principle of Forecasting: * When Past Data are Known as Good Indicator for the Future. * The Pattern of the Future can be recognized from Past Data. Qualitative Techniques: (Subjective and Judgmental) Data Unavailable Unknown Pattern Change Examples: Long Range Forecasting/Sales of New Product/. .. Quantitative Techniques: (Objective and Quantitative) A. Time Series Models: Used when Past Demand is A Good Indicator for Future Demand. (e.g., Short Range Forecasting for Scheduling) B. Causal Relationship Models: Used when the Demand of an Item is Dependent (Related to) on other Underlying Factors (not the Past demand). (e.g., Short and Intermediate Range Forecasting of Existing Products/Sales/Financial Data/. ...) Topic 12 - 7
Background image of page 7

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
1. Simple Moving Average: Given Number of Periods (n) to be Averaged. 2. Weighted Moving Average: Given (n) and Weights (w i ) 3. Simple Exponential Smoothing: Given α (smooth Constant). Topic 12 - 8
Background image of page 8
Image of page 9
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 12/12/2011 for the course SOT atge 3333 taught by Professor S during the Spring '11 term at University of Tunku Abdul Rahman.

Page1 / 31

Topic 12 (1) - Topic 12 Demand Forecasting in POM...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 9. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online