LEC2_RISK_2011 - ofHIVRisk November2,2011 Questionsfortoday

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Individual Assessment  of HIV Risk November 2, 2011
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Questions for today How do individuals assess their risk of HIV? How do people decide what measures to take  to protect themselves against HIV? What contribution does the HIV antibody test  make to this assessment?
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Simplified Temporal Model of  Decision Making 1. Knowledge – collect info 2. Attitude – synthesize, draw conclusions 3. Intention – readiness to take action 4. Behavior – the action taken Today we focus on 1. & 2. in the context  of HIV and AIDS
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Knowledge and Attitudes  about HIV/AIDS Requires risk assessments Difficult because of uncertainty or  probabilistic nature of HIV risk Moreover, that uncertainty may vary over time  and space. How do people deal with probabilistic  information?
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Probabilistic Information How do we put odds on events? Puts odds on some events more easily  than others: 40% chance of showers in Boston 50% of new AIDS cases are among 15-24  year olds How do people use probabilistic  information?
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Normative model of risk  assessment Based on laws of logic and statistics Requires accurately : defining risks & identifying relevant  alternatives calculating and choosing the alternative  with the highest expected value Normative model tells us how engineers  might make decisions in a laboratory
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Normative models of risk  assessment: an example Decision to drive What are benefits? What are costs? What are the risks from driving an  automobile? 15,000,000 accidents per year, 1 in 300 of  which result in death, there are  250,000,000 people
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Normative models of risk  assessment year deaths accidents deaths year accidents Risk Societal 000 , 50 300 1 000 , 000 , 15 = × = year person deaths accidents death people year accidents Risk Individual × = = - 4 10 2 300 1 * 000 , 000 , 250 / 000 , 000 , 15 ( 29 70 1 014 . 0 70 10 2 4 in years year person deaths Risk Lifetime = × × = -
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Normative Model of Risk  Assessment Psychologists have demonstrated many  discrepancies between predictions of  normative models and actual decision-making Human brain does not seem to solve  probabilistic problems by applying laws of  logic or statistics So how does it work?    
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How do individuals actually  assess risk? How do we assess the risk from  various probabilities? Difficult to utilize vast amounts of  information, so brain uses ‘heuristics’ What are heuristics?  
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Heuristics/Subjective  Probability Models Heuristics help with quick decision- making Can lead to significant biases   There are consistent patterns to some  of these biases, which can be helpful in  designing interventions
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Three Major Human Probability- Assessment Heuristics Representativeness Availability Anchoring
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